I've been scrambling to see what's out there. Obviously, this is the best result we could have hoped for. Sales of Ruxolitinib to treat PC have probably begun already, and are likely to become substantial before any regulatory action. My sum-of-the-parts valuation of INCY has gone up about $18, putting it above $50.
The results are kind of borderline for next steps. The hazard ratio for the general patient population of 0.79 makes a full p3 feasible, but not cheap (say 250 patients to have a good chance of achieving statistical significance). On the other hand, the subgroup with a hazard ratio of 0.47 could probably be validated with a study size less than 100. The fixed costs of running any p3 at all are substantial, so the choice isn't clear-cut. Having patient selection criteria on the label (as a result of doing the smaller study) isn't clearly a disadvantage (as we've seen with MF duration of treatment).
Thanks jacosa. I enjoy reading your analysis. You are far from a pumper. Sometimes you bend over backwards and remain too objective. When maybe INCY deserves a 'pat on the back'. But I prefer that to reading someone who always drinking the 'kool-aide' without giving us solid reasons they are pumping. You really understand the mechanics of the drugs and trial results way more then I could hope to. So, you are an informative source for me..... I look forward to your future analysis as more of theses results are released in time....
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