Much as I dislike technical analysis (read Borton Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street), this is a timely issue. after about 10 months in a $20-25 trading range, are the "informative prices" for INCY different? (Hey, the converse of "If it goes much outside the range and stays there something has changed" is confirmed) What's the range of prices the stock could trade at with no particular reason?
I think that until we see actual changes in sales numbers (That could be February) there could be a large drop for no reason. $29 is probably too high to put the floor. I'm inclined to say that with no fundamental change, the price could go down to $25 (and I'd personally be buying that dip incautiously).
How about an upper "Nothing to see here" price? That one's made harder by the difficulty of defining 'nothing.' What happens if an investigator-sponsored trial shows a benefit of Ruxo? If a medium-sized drug company announces that they're seeking an acquisition in the oncology space somewhere in the $5-10 bln range? I'd call these insignificant, but they might move INCY. Say $40 before an explanation is called for.
Prediction? I like the one attributed to J.P. Morgan" "It will fluctuate."