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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Oct 2, 2013 11:48 AM Flag

    What's going on?

    Obviously, several things. I'll list some possibilities
    -Shorts anticipating company implosion gave up in face of Jakafi sales
    -Critics of 1-product company now see good pipeline
    -Buy siders' spy networks reporting high sales (PaCa is the candidate)
    -High expectations for new drug candidates
    -Anticipation of a major deal
    -Window dressing at institutions

    Any others?

    You know me by now. My investing world is full of static value, value traps and catalysts. Without market researchers of my own, I think actual sales for PaCa will turn out to be material in the next CC.

    I haven't seen past evidence of energetic short activity in INCY. and it takes A LOT of conviction among shorts to keep a stock price low for months.

    It's a short step from ceasing to be a 1-product drug discovery company to becoming a small operating pharmaceutical company. The latter is valued by much less forgiving standards than the former. Good on balance, but because there IS a balance, it seems unlikely to have been the entire cause of a move from 25 to 40.

    The message of the period from the "Bad CC" and the next year was that Incyte insiders are VERY good at confidentiality. And it would be against the interests of the other side of any deal to leak information; I doubt that there's anything more than guessing about deals.

    I like the window dressing idea, too, although it's timed a bit funny. SOME window dressing is done to have lots of winners on the books at the end of an Oct fiscal year, but most of it is replacing the losers sold for short-term capital losses with winners, and tax selling is only just getting going (being timed to the tax year). And few institutions I know about use an Oct year anyway.

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    • bump.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Some good thoughts Jacosa. Cant quibble with any of your POV. I would add that there is probably still overhang and recalibration of potential valuation of companies like INCY, post the ONXX deal.

      Also, fall is approaching, best time for biotech performance is Oct-Dec early Jan. Acqusition deals (not necessarily INCY), also tend to happen more during this timeframe!

      I think SGEN, PCYC, ALXN and a few others also on the same list of potential acquirers. All, have their pluses and minues, vs. current valuation, pipelines, indications they focus on, partnered vs. unpartnered etc, etc.

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