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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Oct 18, 2013 9:56 AM Flag

    BoA Update

    Rachel McMinn still likes Incyte, but the price has been going up and she had to raise her target price [new number: $46] to let her keep a buy rating on the stock. So she attached a curiously high value to the possibility that the IDO inhibitor might be a great success. Meanwhile, she attaches a 70% chance of success to Bari, a market size (adjusted for amount partnered away) comparable to Ruxo. and gives it 1/4 the weight of Ruxo (which she still gives a 10% chance of a market-killing oops) in her company valuation. And she gives little value to the prospects of Incyte's JAK inhibitors in solid tumors other than PaCa. She gives that substantial weight to the prospects of the IDO inhibitor, which didn't look especially good in the tiny amount of test data available (but which fits Gina Kolata's latest hot theme in cancer treatments) and no weight to the cMet drug, which showed some degree of promise.

    Don't get me wrong, McMinn is probably,,,no, definitely, the best sell-side analyst working Incyte. But analyst valuation estimates are simply justifications of their [often intuitive] price targets, and this time she didn't bother to hide that fact.

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