I CAN crunch numbers but I rarely do. Look at what my heroine, Rachel McMinn does: throws unrealistic numbers into the meat grinder and leaves out parts she doesn't need to get a palatable result (agreeing with her best guess made by less-acceptable methodology). It is notoriously hard to defend any particular value estimate for a company with a predictable longish growth phase ahead of it. Incyte isn't going broke soon (actually, management faces a very difficult job coming up with a roadmap that maximizes value on a longer time scale without going unacceptably negative in the middle, but I trust them to do that). A potential acquirer would have to be willing to risk that the final price would be [possibly a lot] over $150 a share, and that doesn't make a try seem likely. Historically, Incyte has been way above average at preventing information leaks, so I have a prejudice against thinking that the present move is based on leaks.
I'm guessing that a lot of the present move is window dressing. Remember how institutional INCY is already--a fund that wants to show meaningful exposure to THIS winner at the end of the year is going to be buying from some tough bargainers.
Possible other shoes: The one I presently like most is a repeat of the one that essentially made the company: co-development agreements covering 2 different drugs finalized very nearly simultaneously. I'd guess 2 JAK1-selective drugs. I'd guess new indications--maybe one against inflammatory bowel disease and the other against solid cancers meeting the magic subgroup criteria (both of those would be difficult for a smallish company to run without a big friend. And both, of course, target huge markets.) Another possibility is outright sale of one or more candidates--the cMet inhibitor comes to mind, along with the non-JAK drugs mentioned in the last CC.
Jacosa, I am having a hard time thinking the volume is primarily year end window dressing by funds. The new convert and some of the equity dilution that has been avoided is IMO part of the reason....BUT I am having a tough time believing that there is not some other very significang info that we are not privy to......this action really reeks of some new info to be announced publicly, soon!