Tue, Jan 27, 2015, 11:11 AM EST - U.S. Markets close in 4 hrs 49 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • mrdtino mrdtino Nov 13, 2013 12:12 PM Flag

    Crunch those numbers Jacosa...

    Come on sage of INCY...we need your calm!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I CAN crunch numbers but I rarely do. Look at what my heroine, Rachel McMinn does: throws unrealistic numbers into the meat grinder and leaves out parts she doesn't need to get a palatable result (agreeing with her best guess made by less-acceptable methodology). It is notoriously hard to defend any particular value estimate for a company with a predictable longish growth phase ahead of it. Incyte isn't going broke soon (actually, management faces a very difficult job coming up with a roadmap that maximizes value on a longer time scale without going unacceptably negative in the middle, but I trust them to do that). A potential acquirer would have to be willing to risk that the final price would be [possibly a lot] over $150 a share, and that doesn't make a try seem likely. Historically, Incyte has been way above average at preventing information leaks, so I have a prejudice against thinking that the present move is based on leaks.

      I'm guessing that a lot of the present move is window dressing. Remember how institutional INCY is already--a fund that wants to show meaningful exposure to THIS winner at the end of the year is going to be buying from some tough bargainers.

      Possible other shoes: The one I presently like most is a repeat of the one that essentially made the company: co-development agreements covering 2 different drugs finalized very nearly simultaneously. I'd guess 2 JAK1-selective drugs. I'd guess new indications--maybe one against inflammatory bowel disease and the other against solid cancers meeting the magic subgroup criteria (both of those would be difficult for a smallish company to run without a big friend. And both, of course, target huge markets.) Another possibility is outright sale of one or more candidates--the cMet inhibitor comes to mind, along with the non-JAK drugs mentioned in the last CC.

 
INCY
82.78-0.17(-0.20%)11:10 AMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.