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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • mrdtino mrdtino Nov 13, 2013 12:12 PM Flag

    Crunch those numbers Jacosa...

    Come on sage of INCY...we need your calm!

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    • I CAN crunch numbers but I rarely do. Look at what my heroine, Rachel McMinn does: throws unrealistic numbers into the meat grinder and leaves out parts she doesn't need to get a palatable result (agreeing with her best guess made by less-acceptable methodology). It is notoriously hard to defend any particular value estimate for a company with a predictable longish growth phase ahead of it. Incyte isn't going broke soon (actually, management faces a very difficult job coming up with a roadmap that maximizes value on a longer time scale without going unacceptably negative in the middle, but I trust them to do that). A potential acquirer would have to be willing to risk that the final price would be [possibly a lot] over $150 a share, and that doesn't make a try seem likely. Historically, Incyte has been way above average at preventing information leaks, so I have a prejudice against thinking that the present move is based on leaks.

      I'm guessing that a lot of the present move is window dressing. Remember how institutional INCY is already--a fund that wants to show meaningful exposure to THIS winner at the end of the year is going to be buying from some tough bargainers.

      Possible other shoes: The one I presently like most is a repeat of the one that essentially made the company: co-development agreements covering 2 different drugs finalized very nearly simultaneously. I'd guess 2 JAK1-selective drugs. I'd guess new indications--maybe one against inflammatory bowel disease and the other against solid cancers meeting the magic subgroup criteria (both of those would be difficult for a smallish company to run without a big friend. And both, of course, target huge markets.) Another possibility is outright sale of one or more candidates--the cMet inhibitor comes to mind, along with the non-JAK drugs mentioned in the last CC.

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