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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Jan 13, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    JPM Conference

    Put 'em here.

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    • Glad to see that it was Dr Friedman who presented. I thought he did a wonderful job showcasing the strength and depth of the pipeline, clearly articulating the near- term opportunities in oncology inflammation , with Jakafi, 110 and the IDO1 upstream pathway interrelationships with the downstam checkpoint inhibitors.

      Some things that were new were:

      1. FDA has accepted a label update on Jakafi with a PDUFA date for that in August.
      2. Will be presenting Phase 2 IDO data at ASCO this year, and early indications are that it is very promising, based on what both Friedman and Wei of Jefferies said,
      3. The Pivotal trial in Jakafi for PanCa to start in March/April, with FDA already haing agreed to only the subgroup in the trial, and also has granted Jakafi orphan drug status for the PanCa indication. They will also be using the same sub-group in 3 other cancer targets, breast, colon and lung cancers. And, importantly start similar trials , Phase 2, with the wholly owned 110 also later this group. In the same sub group, and probably with many of the same cancer targets. THIS, could be big in 2015, if the results turn out to be similar to the Phase 2 PanCa trial, as it should be another multi- billion business opportunity.
      4. Bari trial Phase 3 in RA going well, with early read of data expected towards the end of 2014.
      5. PV Phase 3 data expected in March/April timeframe with submission to FDA planned in June and approval expected by Dec 2014.
      6. Follow-on JAK 1 compound (110 to be focused on oncology) in RA to start this year as well.
      7. The 0093 P13k Delta compound in Phase 1 could also be big and offer a unique differentiated opportunity for combo trials within its exiting pipeline of proprietary compounds.
      8. More new molecules expected to enter the clinic this year, meaning the R and D team continues to be very productive.

      Overall, a very strong presentation with depth, and clearly demonstrated that INCY is preparing to enter a new league! Could be the next CELGENE!

    • Fittingly, Dr Paul left with a huge information dump. One thing I pick up as interesting is that the PI3Kd drug has a special slot right away, as a synergist for '110.

      As a student of consequences of CEO presentations, I like HH's accent. It's very hard to sound like somebody just ran over your favorite hound with an accent like that.

      • 2 Replies to jacosa
      • Well, my sense is that a number of fund managers and industry professional are bullish after Dr Friedman's presentation and perhaps also impressed with the credential and track record of the new CEO. At this time, assuming the PV Phase 3 data mirrors the Phase 2 data, it looks like MF and PV alone could generate over $ 1 Billion in 2015. And with PacCa Phase 3 scheduled to start in a couple of months, and lack of any of other good second line treatment options for current PanCa patients, we could also see some significant off label use as soon as this year. If and when PanCa indication is also approved, we could be looking at a $2 Billiom annual sales potential product in 2016/2017. And that assumes nothing for Bari, IDO or 110, or 0093, by that timeframe. With just $2 Billion annual sales potential in 2016/2017, I think many funds may be just discovering the value in INCY, using a 8-10 sales multiple. Now throw in Bari and 110 and at least one of the lung, colorectal or breast for Ruco or 110 and we are talking some very significant numbers even for a mega pharma. On the other hand, there are other targets like VRTX and ALXN who also have rich pipelines and much greater near term sales potential, compared to INCY. This in reference to UBS and JPM identifying INCY as a top acquisition target. I believe only JNJ, MRK, GILD and perhaps AMGN and SNY would be potential acquirers. I still see this as a low probability outcome, because we are talking greater than $15 Billiom price and, the inherent risks in INCY.

      • Funny it! And yes, could be more strategic a move than meets the eye! Keep those hounds out of the streets!

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