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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • bgmarcks bgmarcks Feb 8, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Buyout Possibilities?

    What large biotech of Big Pharma firms might be intereseted in INCY and its growing pipeline? A few come to mind like Celgene, Merck, Pfizer, maybe Lilly. Any thoughts?

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    • While an offer is less likely to start a bidding panic than it was when the stock price was lower, that risk is still a great deterrant to anyone considering a move. Incyte management probably still wants something on the order of $220 (which would be appropriate if Jakafi gets 20% of the PV market and also gets a big share in PaCa, if Bari shows structural protection with no unexpected AEs and if one other early-to-mid stage program looks very good) A potential acquirer would have to offer $85 or so to get enough stock tendered to win--that's already a serious commitment, but even without a frenzy, bidding could easily go over $120. That would be a pretty serious move (Remember: fully diluted). No longer totally implausible, but not super likely either.

      I don't consider the likely price-rise catalysts in the next couple quarters very compelling. If the market chooses to yawn at them, owners could become impatient. So the conditions for a buyout might get more favorable in a few months.

    • GERN, RNN, CYTR, RPRX, CLDX, DNDN or ARNA. definitely not MRK or Novartis or LLY

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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