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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • tjnelis tjnelis Jun 19, 2014 7:39 AM Flag

    3 potential things that could move incyte stock

    1) russell re balancing, based on market cap, last day of may.....last year approx 3.1B, this year 8.3B, thus a climb up in the index possibly, then more shares required by index funds. re balancing happens next Friday at close, could be why stock is going up lately as someone is accumulating shares to sell into re balance

    2) someday incyte will submit their sNDA, for PV with drug ruxolitinib, when is anyone's guess

    3) UK's Nice set to re-review Ruxolitinib for MF before the end of June

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    • today I made a bet on the Russell re-balancing tomorrow. Hoping for a pop to 58.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • personally believe that all 3 of these are non events for the company
      1) russell re balancing tend not to move a stock
      2) Incyte has promised to file the sNDA in June, 2 days left, do not seeing it happen in given time frame
      3) Management has stated as long ago as 6 quarters that they were going to get the approval and $60. million from NVS, so will not happen any time soon, I do not see NICE giving Approval

      • 2 Replies to tjnelis
      • I'm afraid that the marketplace has spoken, and NICE is unlikely to repeat King Canute's mistake. I can't guess when, but they will approve Jakavi.. It's risky for them as individuals to delay until after FDA decides on whether references to life extension can go on the label--they look like jerks either way that decision comes out (if they DID command the tide to stop and if FDA doesn't allow the mentions, they might not look too bad, but all 3 other combinations look awful for them)

        I'm still working up my + and - cases, but I don't see any unarguable positive catalysts in the next 9 months. On the other hand, about the only negative catalyst I can see is a turning away from immunooncology. The "Jakafi for MF and PV company" would be worth something like the present stock price. So leaving out M&A possibilities, I don't expect much excitement. The JANUS trials take a lot of the possible impact away from any investigator-sponsored trials.

      • Case closed....everyone sell. The oracle of Detroit has spoken!

    • 3)a] Italy may approve reimbursement of Ruxo at an arbitrary time; before end of June is more likely than other times because people like to clear old work before vacation.

      4) FDA may allow reference to survival data "on label." (decision likely before Fall). (Actual data rather than reference on label is very unlikely, but would be even more positive)

      • 1 Reply to jacosa
      • this is the exact wording from the nice site on JAkavi

        7 Review of guidance
        7.1 The guidance on this technology will be considered for review in June 2014. The Guidance Executive will decide whether the technology should be reviewed based on information gathered by NICE, and in consultation with consultees and commentators.

        so it appears that it could go up again for review, but no decision will be made by the end of june, imho
        so 1 of 3 down for the week

    • not bad Nellis.... Did you finally go long?

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