I have to admit, I've been questioning the true
upside of incy for the past month or so, ever since the
stock was hovering in the mid-200's. I've always felt
that incy would have to evolve beyond just database
subscriptions to become a sustainable business.
analogy, however, is to look at some of the "old economy"
information companies that serve the pharmaceutical industry.
Look at IMS Health (ticker RX), which supplies mostly
market information such as drug sales and physician
prescription audits...This company has a market cap of $7
billion as of today.
SOme IMS data is proprietory
and some is freely available through SEC filings and
Edgar reports. IMS repackages it in a usable form. If
this company is worth this much, I would think an
enormous value can be created by a company like incy,
which is providing data that is so critical to the
actual development of intellectual property.
course, incy is also well positioned to expand its
technological base to get into gene chip diagnostics, gene
expression databases, etc. The potential for royalties off
gene patents is a wildcard, albeit that would add an
additional, huge, upside.
For these reasons, I am
suddenly feeling comfortable as a long again. I don't see
why this company couldn't have a market cap of 10-15
billion in a couple years. Any dissenting (well
thought-out) reasons would be welcome....
Long term is anyone's guess. too hard to predict.
Who would have thought we'd be where we are now 10
years ago? no one
I choose to trade on
technicals because I just don't wish to put all my faith
into one company or sector and let it ride for 5
years. You can never tell who the winners will truly
Who really knew MSFT or CSCO would be the powerhouses
they are now when they first started out?? Hell, who
even knew their business would be like they
Stinky my man, it's just too hard to call long term. If
i believed in the sector, I'd buy the index or a
bio fund and hang onto that for longterm. But to pick
and individual stock and hang on for better or worse,
richer or poorer with blinders on to anything that may
happen along the way is asking for trouble
Hey, if you are long term that's great. You
believe this industry and particularly this company will
be huge in 5-10 years and I'm not saying you are
wrong. Just don't get on my case when I was saying that
in the short term, there may be some serious
problems and to not expect it to go back to
You are obviously very comfortable with the sector
and with Incy and know what you want from them.
choose to take a different, more technical, appraoch to
my investing. It done me well.
but to each is
and to say that 80% of mutuals don't beat the S and P
is false. Like I said before, that means you are
counting every type of fund in the group, and that isn't a
true picture. Do you think it's right to as a bond
fund for instance to beat the S and P? course not. Not
only that, but the sources you site, are taking the
funds returns AFTER taxes with again is an
regardless, I'm not a
fundamentalist and you are. You'll do great in the long run too
- as long as you are a visionary and are very
accurate in your predictions. If not, you may get burned.
I choose to trade. I am just not that good at
telling the future
>>Because of their excessive annual fees and poor
execution, approximately 80% of mutual funds underperform
the stock market's returns in a typical
I recommend you provide a reference for your data.
(Sorry for destroying your credibility.) And please
don't label me a Motley Fool. I hate TMF but their site
is the only one to back up claims with
Your argument re "managed money" is groundless. There
is no reason whatsoever to assume mutual fund
managers to underperform the rest of the industry (while
there are reasons to assume the
Reasons why I have not sold:
- INCY is the
unchallenged leader in the generation and provision of genomic
data in terms of subscription revenue, market
footprint, and intellectual property. INCY occupies a strong
leadership position in bioinformatics.
- INCY has
redefined efficiency in genomics and transcriptomics. They
will continue to leverage molecular biological tools
into superior technology platforms, generating data
faster and cheaper than anyone else in the
- INCY's pioneering work in genomics and
transcriptomics underlines the impressive execution of their
business plan, driven by superior understanding of the
marketplace and their outstanding capacity to integrate
science and business.
- Biological information
expands expontentially moving downstream of the gene.
INCY has moved downstream further and more
aggressively than any other genomic dbase company. They
provide the only comprehensive dbase integrating
information from multiple distinct stages of expression. The
company will soon embark on a massive proteome project,
further securing their position as the only source of
broad and integrated genomic information.
will make their dbase products available over the
Internet, thereby eliminating the financial and technical
barriers prohibiting academia as well as smaller
pharmaco's from subscribing. INCY will receive a permanent
share of the entire industry's revenue as well as R&D
- Genomics will transform the life sciences and
thereby create unprecedented wealth. INCY will be at the
forefront of this vast revolution, justifying a market
valuation in excess of $150B 5-10 years from
In other words, I couldn't care less about INCY
falling to $90 or even back to $24. I am interested in
superior long-term returns, and the future WILL prove me
as i'm not one of the attackers (they come to the
fore on every board where price drops
happen<g>), i don't defend any of that.
i also have no
problems with traders and shorts...that is all part of the
that said, and i am new to genomics but working hard
to get up to speed enough to put together my own
portfolio, i find myself increasingly gravitiating away from
companies that appear to me to be in the sequencing and
"here's the raw data" business and more to those who are
involved largely or exclusively in more focused gene
expression work (glgc comes to immediate mind).
don't claim expertise and at this early stage cannot
even be completely sure i am moving in the right area,
but somehow, with all the bigger names in the
business, i am finding myself more comfortable with the
missions of the, shall i say, and, again, at risk of being
unfair, more focused and less "niche challenged", if you
i am, therefore, much less high on the likes of CRA
and INCY than i was when i started my
would you mind taking your day trading hat off and tell
me what you think in a more long term
I wish everyone on this board would stop
attacking me - it's not my fault Incy dropped. it is
nothing personal. It was due for a huge drop and frankly
deserved it. Anyone who thinks this it is reasonable for
Incy to have run from 40 to 289 is living in
Now on to your Q:
I think Incy is suffering as are
all the biotechs. They all got way ahead of
themselves. I'm not saying Incy specifically was worse or
better than any of the others. What I can tell you is
that they were one of the highest flying and therefore
should have and did drop the furthest.
business model and dynamics of the genomic industry to be
are just too undefined right now. Too immature. Given
time, I wouldn't doubt all of our fine friends' claims
on this board will come to pass. The future could be
awesome for genomics. But that isn't what's affecting the
stock price right now; it is market and the market will
do what it wants regardless of anyone's high hopes
or beliefs in a company.
So, no I am not
saying Incy sucks as a company. It just is not a 300
dollar a share stock. 100 maybe/maybe not.
can't understand how anyone who owned this at 25 and
held on the wild ride up to 270 didn't sell. What did
they think, that it "deserved" to be that high? C'mon,
that is naive...
and to whoever it was that
asked why I'm still around. I'm here because I'm still
daytrading Incy. I sell whenever she rises more than 10
points in the morning and then cover when she drops back
down in the afternoon. Try it - you might like it
thousand dollars in his IRA are the clowns. i am
a trader for a very large firm, I don't own INCY or
trade it and I can tell you that no one at this firm or
any other firm that I deal with would even consider
the odd-lot theory a viable way to trade securities.
As I've said before, I haven't lost a dime on
this stock...I bought it at way under it's current
price. Sure I could've made more money by selling it at
the top and buying it back at the bottom, but I
didn't want to give any of my profits to the government
and given that I am in love with INCY I think that my
strategy will pay off in several years when I am sitting
on a heap of cash and you have long since lost your
chance to be in on one of the great stocks of the
You're the type of guy who probably would have told me
to sell me Intel back in 1987 the first time it took
a ride up and then went back down a bit. By the
way, I'm still holding it and an original four hundred
dollar investment has turned into 296 shares at today's
current market price.
Sheep are the ones who
follow the herd, not the ones who stick to their
convictions when everyone else says otherwise. You seem to
fit this description much better than
Enjoy your short position while it lasts.