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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • isharma2 isharma2 Mar 23, 2000 2:55 PM Flag

    Interesting analogy for incy longs...

    I have to admit, I've been questioning the true
    upside of incy for the past month or so, ever since the
    stock was hovering in the mid-200's. I've always felt
    that incy would have to evolve beyond just database
    subscriptions to become a sustainable business.

    A great
    analogy, however, is to look at some of the "old economy"
    information companies that serve the pharmaceutical industry.
    Look at IMS Health (ticker RX), which supplies mostly
    market information such as drug sales and physician
    prescription audits...This company has a market cap of $7
    billion as of today.

    SOme IMS data is proprietory
    and some is freely available through SEC filings and
    Edgar reports. IMS repackages it in a usable form. If
    this company is worth this much, I would think an
    enormous value can be created by a company like incy,
    which is providing data that is so critical to the
    actual development of intellectual property.

    Of
    course, incy is also well positioned to expand its
    technological base to get into gene chip diagnostics, gene
    expression databases, etc. The potential for royalties off
    gene patents is a wildcard, albeit that would add an
    additional, huge, upside.

    For these reasons, I am
    suddenly feeling comfortable as a long again. I don't see
    why this company couldn't have a market cap of 10-15
    billion in a couple years. Any dissenting (well
    thought-out) reasons would be welcome....

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • eom.

    • Long term is anyone's guess. too hard to predict.
      Who would have thought we'd be where we are now 10
      years ago? no one

      I choose to trade on
      technicals because I just don't wish to put all my faith
      into one company or sector and let it ride for 5
      years. You can never tell who the winners will truly
      be.
      Who really knew MSFT or CSCO would be the powerhouses
      they are now when they first started out?? Hell, who
      even knew their business would be like they
      are?

      Stinky my man, it's just too hard to call long term. If
      i believed in the sector, I'd buy the index or a
      bio fund and hang onto that for longterm. But to pick
      and individual stock and hang on for better or worse,
      richer or poorer with blinders on to anything that may
      happen along the way is asking for trouble

      Just
      my opinion
      good luck!

    • Hey, if you are long term that's great. You
      believe this industry and particularly this company will
      be huge in 5-10 years and I'm not saying you are
      wrong. Just don't get on my case when I was saying that
      in the short term, there may be some serious
      problems and to not expect it to go back to
      270.

      You are obviously very comfortable with the sector
      and with Incy and know what you want from them.
      I
      choose to take a different, more technical, appraoch to
      my investing. It done me well.
      but to each is
      own.

      and to say that 80% of mutuals don't beat the S and P
      is false. Like I said before, that means you are
      counting every type of fund in the group, and that isn't a
      true picture. Do you think it's right to as a bond
      fund for instance to beat the S and P? course not. Not
      only that, but the sources you site, are taking the
      funds returns AFTER taxes with again is an
      unrepresentative number.

      regardless, I'm not a
      fundamentalist and you are. You'll do great in the long run too
      - as long as you are a visionary and are very
      accurate in your predictions. If not, you may get burned.
      I choose to trade. I am just not that good at
      telling the future

    • http://search.fool.com/school/mutualfunds/performance/record.htm

      >>Because of their excessive annual fees and poor
      execution, approximately 80% of mutual funds underperform
      the stock market's returns in a typical
      year.<<

      I recommend you provide a reference for your data.
      (Sorry for destroying your credibility.) And please
      don't label me a Motley Fool. I hate TMF but their site
      is the only one to back up claims with
      data.

      Your argument re "managed money" is groundless. There
      is no reason whatsoever to assume mutual fund
      managers to underperform the rest of the industry (while
      there are reasons to assume the
      opposite).

      Reasons why I have not sold:

      - INCY is the
      unchallenged leader in the generation and provision of genomic
      data in terms of subscription revenue, market
      footprint, and intellectual property. INCY occupies a strong
      leadership position in bioinformatics.

      - INCY has
      redefined efficiency in genomics and transcriptomics. They
      will continue to leverage molecular biological tools
      into superior technology platforms, generating data
      faster and cheaper than anyone else in the
      marketplace.

      - INCY's pioneering work in genomics and
      transcriptomics underlines the impressive execution of their
      business plan, driven by superior understanding of the
      marketplace and their outstanding capacity to integrate
      science and business.

      - Biological information
      expands expontentially moving downstream of the gene.
      INCY has moved downstream further and more
      aggressively than any other genomic dbase company. They
      provide the only comprehensive dbase integrating
      information from multiple distinct stages of expression. The
      company will soon embark on a massive proteome project,
      further securing their position as the only source of
      broad and integrated genomic information.

      - INCY
      will make their dbase products available over the
      Internet, thereby eliminating the financial and technical
      barriers prohibiting academia as well as smaller
      pharmaco's from subscribing. INCY will receive a permanent
      share of the entire industry's revenue as well as R&D
      expenses.

      - Genomics will transform the life sciences and
      thereby create unprecedented wealth. INCY will be at the
      forefront of this vast revolution, justifying a market
      valuation in excess of $150B 5-10 years from
      today.

      In other words, I couldn't care less about INCY
      falling to $90 or even back to $24. I am interested in
      superior long-term returns, and the future WILL prove me
      right.

    • as i'm not one of the attackers (they come to the
      fore on every board where price drops
      happen<g>), i don't defend any of that.

      i also have no
      problems with traders and shorts...that is all part of the
      business.

      that said, and i am new to genomics but working hard
      to get up to speed enough to put together my own
      portfolio, i find myself increasingly gravitiating away from
      companies that appear to me to be in the sequencing and
      "here's the raw data" business and more to those who are
      involved largely or exclusively in more focused gene
      expression work (glgc comes to immediate mind).

      i
      don't claim expertise and at this early stage cannot
      even be completely sure i am moving in the right area,
      but somehow, with all the bigger names in the
      business, i am finding myself more comfortable with the
      missions of the, shall i say, and, again, at risk of being
      unfair, more focused and less "niche challenged", if you
      will.

      i am, therefore, much less high on the likes of CRA
      and INCY than i was when i started my
      quest.

      would you mind taking your day trading hat off and tell
      me what you think in a more long term
      vein?

      thanks.

    • I wish everyone on this board would stop
      attacking me - it's not my fault Incy dropped. it is
      nothing personal. It was due for a huge drop and frankly
      deserved it. Anyone who thinks this it is reasonable for
      Incy to have run from 40 to 289 is living in
      dreamland.

      Now on to your Q:
      I think Incy is suffering as are
      all the biotechs. They all got way ahead of
      themselves. I'm not saying Incy specifically was worse or
      better than any of the others. What I can tell you is
      that they were one of the highest flying and therefore
      should have and did drop the furthest.
      The pure
      business model and dynamics of the genomic industry to be
      are just too undefined right now. Too immature. Given
      time, I wouldn't doubt all of our fine friends' claims
      on this board will come to pass. The future could be
      awesome for genomics. But that isn't what's affecting the
      stock price right now; it is market and the market will
      do what it wants regardless of anyone's high hopes
      or beliefs in a company.

      So, no I am not
      saying Incy sucks as a company. It just is not a 300
      dollar a share stock. 100 maybe/maybe not.
      I just
      can't understand how anyone who owned this at 25 and
      held on the wild ride up to 270 didn't sell. What did
      they think, that it "deserved" to be that high? C'mon,
      that is naive...

      and to whoever it was that
      asked why I'm still around. I'm here because I'm still
      daytrading Incy. I sell whenever she rises more than 10
      points in the morning and then cover when she drops back
      down in the afternoon. Try it - you might like it

    • thousand dollars in his IRA are the clowns. i am
      a trader for a very large firm, I don't own INCY or
      trade it and I can tell you that no one at this firm or
      any other firm that I deal with would even consider
      the odd-lot theory a viable way to trade securities.

    • thank you.

      what do you make of incy's slide in light of the overall genomics market?

    • <EOM>

    • As I've said before, I haven't lost a dime on
      this stock...I bought it at way under it's current
      price. Sure I could've made more money by selling it at
      the top and buying it back at the bottom, but I
      didn't want to give any of my profits to the government
      and given that I am in love with INCY I think that my
      strategy will pay off in several years when I am sitting
      on a heap of cash and you have long since lost your
      chance to be in on one of the great stocks of the
      future.

      You're the type of guy who probably would have told me
      to sell me Intel back in 1987 the first time it took
      a ride up and then went back down a bit. By the
      way, I'm still holding it and an original four hundred
      dollar investment has turned into 296 shares at today's
      current market price.

      Sheep are the ones who
      follow the herd, not the ones who stick to their
      convictions when everyone else says otherwise. You seem to
      fit this description much better than
      Mudd.

      Enjoy your short position while it lasts.

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INCY
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