I appreciate your diligence and speculation. The valuation problem I see is that the two companies will reside in different indexes thus creating downward selling pressure on MHED. That however, is another chapter. I'm still not feeling the Sept 12 date. MHP cannot issue new shares before the spin-off is final, and each company is standing completely separated. Maybe, it can be treated like the ex-dividend date, where shareholders will receive shares if parent shares are held till a specified date of record. If Sept 12 is that date, then I am a happy camper.
Saw the Sept 12 date in a Reuters article I believe. There will be pre-issue activity on MHE shares. In any event, there will be initially about 98 million shares outstanding (33% of 298000, 1 for three). A $3 billion tender for all shares outstanding would be $30 per share. I expect that there would be a premium of some amount over that. The final valuation will be based on how badly share holders want to hold on to MHE. The current financial and political position of text book buyers argues against rapid growth in revenue and earnings for MHE.
These are my speculations not a recommendation of any sort.
Sept 12 is the day shares of MHE will be split off and the market will determine the price. If there is a buyout, it would seem to me that a tender would have to be at a premium to the market price. So, is the Sept date a guess? No. Would the market price be a guess? Yes. Would the $3 billion bandied about here be a guess, yes. Depends on the valuation by the potential buyer.
Is that a guess or a fact? Is it because Waldeman bought 3000 shares on August 12, and that transaction, to be legal, has to be done 30 days before the sale price of MHE is announced?
Look at the annual report...see where the profits are earned...look at the returns on assets employed...over the longer term look at where the revenue growth has some from. I think that MHF will support a value that is some multiple of MHE's. 3x might be it, I'd bet higher.