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GW Pharmaceuticals plc Message Board

  • mrequity1 mrequity1 Oct 10, 2013 3:38 PM Flag

    Valuation?

    Let's say the FDA approves Sativex for cancer pain and MS spasticity. What are the potential revenues? 400,000 MS patients, 100,000 with spasms uncontrolled. $750 million after partner gets their cut ($10,000 yearly cost). Cancer pain is tough to calculate. 400,000 with pain not controlled by opiates, but Sativex can reduce the amount of opiates needed for ALL cancer patients. A wild guess is maybe 1 million patients get Sativex. $6.5 Billion. Let's say $7 billion total and then cut that in half just because. So $3.5 Billion divided by 177 million ordinary shares. So $19 per share multiplied by 12 shares per ADR equals $228 revenue per ADR. Let's cut it in half again because I see through rose colored glasses. $114 in revenue per ADR. Biogen trades at 10 times revenue. Amgen at 5 times. What am I doing wrong?

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GWPH
77.43-2.77(-3.45%)Nov 28 1:00 PMEST

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