Let's say the FDA approves Sativex for cancer pain and MS spasticity. What are the potential revenues? 400,000 MS patients, 100,000 with spasms uncontrolled. $750 million after partner gets their cut ($10,000 yearly cost). Cancer pain is tough to calculate. 400,000 with pain not controlled by opiates, but Sativex can reduce the amount of opiates needed for ALL cancer patients. A wild guess is maybe 1 million patients get Sativex. $6.5 Billion. Let's say $7 billion total and then cut that in half just because. So $3.5 Billion divided by 177 million ordinary shares. So $19 per share multiplied by 12 shares per ADR equals $228 revenue per ADR. Let's cut it in half again because I see through rose colored glasses. $114 in revenue per ADR. Biogen trades at 10 times revenue. Amgen at 5 times. What am I doing wrong?
You didn't include 2 drugs for type 2 diabetes, one for brain cancer, epilepsy schizophrenia, ulcerative colitis and pain due to neuropathy. There will be more applications in addition to these, already in the works.
28 is too high unless you give Sativex any credit at all. The problem with waiting is that the FDA could move quickly. Their biggest concern is patients self medicating, making them look irrelevant in chronic intractable conditions. Any positive news will make this stock jump again.