Broke, Thought you might find this interesting-taken from an old interview "At the same time in
2009, Shell made a discovery in Vito. Vito is located here in the green block
984, reported in the press that Vito's got 250 feet of pay, it's the lower
Miocene section. We're producing out of the middle Miocene section, it's not
really the same sands that we're producing out of. But what it shows is
productivity in the deeper sands. Now going forward we don't really know what
Shell is going to do with this, we're going to evaluate it. At some point
they will decide if it's large enough for them to develop, tie back to their
own infrastructure. If that happens, so be it. On the other side of the coin
the probabilities are it could be smaller. And if it's too small for them, it
opens up the opportunity for ATP to bring 984 into our development. We can
trade for it, we can become an equity partner."
Broke, I think what they are implying is that Vto is right next door to 941. Having discovered 250' of pay which is a lot,
there exists a high probablility ofthe same play on ATP's 941 block. Their seismic data probably matches up to similar sands. The Titan would have to be moved west as it presently sits inbetween 941 and 942. Just some thoughts...
I guess it all depends on what you bought your shares for now doesn't it? Buy a lot more now and maybe you can recoup some of your losses. I agree it has been very painful to be in this stock over the last 2 years. Maybe I should of said 40 a share which is not out of the possibilities.
In your own words-"In order to get to 32-35 pre-Clipper would they not have to be currently in the 28-31k range". I would say you are a bit off with a 5-7k rework add on. 7k high end on your 31k gives 38k. 5k on your low end gives 33k. So that is a 33-38k range. Now to go back down to a 32-35k range we have to lose 1-3k. Subtract that from your 28-31k range and you now get 27-28k. We were at 21-23k back before A3 came online. And that was with problems! Add the 7k+ strong and we are at 30k. Now add a couple more for reworked wells-mainly (1.5k)A1+(2-4k)A2. This gives me confidence that 32-35 should be a reasonable number to get to with no big mishaps-aka scre..wups!
If the stock goes up 60% it gets to around $11. This time two years ago and last year it was at or near $20. Do you really think that's "not too bad"? No, it's not too bad, it's downright terrible.
23k- production (before reworks) End of Q4 2011
7K-add 4 the well
2k less depletion
Expected range before clipper 32K-35K
Here is the math show me yours, this information comes from the 10Q and the call
I'm curious as to your understanding of their most CURRENT production.......what that consists of, and then what you are thinking they are going to add with the re-works to get to this 32-35k rate?? In order to get to 32-35 pre-Clipper would they not have to be currently in the 28-31k range?? They have said now publicly they are NOT CURRENTLY producing that much oil..........so what gives??
With A2 shut in we have lost 2-3k. When the rework is done we should be back in a good range of 5-7k from what I was told. That is why I am calling for A2(5-7k)-6k avg. A3 8k now, 9k+ when comingle. A1 will be shut in for only a couple days. It is at 5-6k now and add the 1.5k brings us to 6.5-7.5k. Hence 6k A1, 6k A2 and the big one 7-9k A3. I sure hope the A3 zones are starting to balance pressure wise because then we open the tap on a very large sand. This will surprise most here i think.
not sure - looking for that info also, but if the Q4 production levels continued in Jan and most of Feb, (23.4k bbls per day)it implies that since the recompletions started in late Feb, we were only producing about 13k - 14k per day in March. How else can we finish Q1 with only 20k - 21k bbls per day?