Call ATPG ask for Tom in investor relations and ASK him WTF is going on and tell him company should issue an update in light of what is happening to stock. They expect big increase in production. Then need to hear from shareholders.
OCF and PPS 22-Apr-12 09:00 am
31 boe >7.46 OCF x 1.7 times =12.68 pps
37 boe >11.00 OCF x 1.7 times = 18.7 PPS
47 boe > 16.69 OCF x 1.7 times = 28.37 pps
The above information comes from a George fisher article he wrote the article (1/2012) oil was 102/113 just below current levels. I’m notsure what average oil price he used in his OCF calculations for 2011 .
The 1.7 multiple is low due to the company large debt load as this dissipates and the multiple will climb to the 2-3 range. Based on the information provide on the last call detailed under the topic A-1 and A-2 in Q3 our production will be between these 2 levels and our exit 2012 will be between 41-47. The market will start to look out six months . Risk going forward are CANES and a major drop in oil below 90 Dollars barrel on Brent , most of our crude is sold as LS and will fetch a few dollars below Brent pricing ,yet higher than WTI. The beauty of the company using debt is it provides tremendous leverage, as you can see in the price ranges 12-28 it also provides tremendous risk.
Sentiment : Strong Buy
You have rated..OCF projections in observant DD articles & accurate posts by George Fisher confirming price pattern too low..TIA for accurate DD..Know per our sources that if really bad news was comming next that management would have to have a pr on material events per SEC rules of insider known facts! INDEPTH
t/a = projection timely posted 12:53 price was $3.79 then..T/a = "waterfall selling climax price pattern" bottoming based on too oversold reaadings in most indicator charts as posted several times in today..Re: What if ATPG discovers a monster OIL pay in Israel? 14-Jun-12 12:53 pm
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchar... price pattern far too low & oversold for future OCF projections per George Fisher in DD posts & articles..TIA for accurate DD by longs..Bottoming in "waterfall selling climax price pattern" is happening very soon based on t/a in charts patterns..INDEPTH.http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchar...
Sentiment : Strong Buy
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=atpg&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F13%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=10&uf=8&lf=268435456&lf2=2&lf3=131072&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=10&x=42&y=10.TIA for accurate DD & timely t/a if impossible like today's t/a opinions.INDEPTH
"Know per our sources that if really bad news was comming next that management would have to have a pr on material events per SEC rules of insider known facts!"
Hey, climmon, is that the full extent of your back channel sources' insight and knowledge? They know the SEC rules on disclosure. That's not very impressive really, is it?
Those numbers are interesting when production gets to those levels, but we are not there yet. The reason prices are in the $4 range is the really bad 2nd qtr numbers that will be posted in early Aug.
If 1st qtr was at 22 mboe/d, no new production added in the 2nd, a 25% reduction in Telemark production due to shutin from about 14 (I believe was 1st qtr #) to 10, total production could be in the 18 range for 2nd qtr. 18 could equate to cash flow of $0.67 to $1.00 for the qtr, or $2.67 to $4 annualized. Current price reflects a 1.0 to 1.5 multiple to these hugely disappointing quarterly esults.
Once production is at those levels, share prices should also equate as well.
Clarify, what parts are going to be online? End of June would be like, two more weeks, are they saying the outage is now going to be six weeks instead of two? And four or six, why isn't this a material change in conditions that should have been disclosed?? We're talking about a huge Q2 "miss" now.