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Onvia Inc. Message Board

  • gekkogreedisgood gekkogreedisgood Apr 26, 2000 10:42 PM Flag

    ONVI under pressure my advice& strategy

    You should really think about your pain
    thershold:

    1. Underwriters are selling.
    2. Institutional
    holders are selling.

    Not a good sign because these
    guys know hell lot more facts than we do. They know
    things we don't.

    Strategy:

    1. Hold on and
    get thru the pain. It could be a few years having
    money locked up.
    2. Sell now and hope to buy in
    later.
    3. Sell Onvia and buy Merrill Lynch B2B
    holders

    I chose #3 but #2 is okay because:

    1. B2B
    has been trading thousands of times over earnings,
    any price is expensive viewed by mkt.
    2. Onvia is
    a revenue story not a earnings story. Nowhere near
    the black and cash burn rate needs to slow. They lose
    $2 for every dollar of revenue. That's not
    good.
    3. Small to medium businesses is less
    lucrative/margin than big businesses. Plus the reach to small
    business requires more contact/work/education/reach than
    the bigger businesses.
    4. The business exchange
    concept they have in Onvia doesn't work. Why? No
    expertise, no niche advantage (measured by no. and spread of
    customers).

    The business will grow no doubt but it requires
    another 2-3 years of cash burnt and only if it survives
    with more funding. I am less optimistic and the dot
    com shake out will take Onvia with it.

    I won't
    be shorting, but I am not buying the story. With
    last few month's hype, anything is a buy. In this
    market, you'd better off getting the big
    names/leaders.

    My prefer pick is #3

    If you like to reduce
    exposure but still want to be in B2B, I would buy Merriall
    Lynch's B2B holder. I think the ticker is BBH or BHH
    (can't remember exactly).

    These are traded in
    lots of 100 shares. Each share holds a basket of
    primier stocks in its class. So you have Commerce One,
    Ariba as well as small names like Sciquest and I think
    Onvia too.

    I'd sell out Onvia and simply buy the
    HOLDRs they have to limit my potential loss but still
    allows significant gains in the sector. Remember, you
    don't want to be overexpose in one stock right now. If
    you had HOLDRS, you would have enjoyed the Commerce
    One rise in the past 2 days right? And who knows
    which B2B will go up? But everytime one goes up, it
    doesn't mean the whole sector does. Bu you can't buy the
    whole sector. You can.

    Think about this. I am
    not after a war. I am not long or short Onvia
    anymore. I just want to teach some of you better
    strategies to play through these ups and downs. I do hold
    some B2B holders myself just to let you know
    also.

    Think about it!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • ...but oh well.

      Heya. Perhaps you might
      consider voluntary disclosure on the source for several of
      your points.

      Namely:
      > 1. Underwriters
      are selling.
      > 2. Institutional holders are
      selling.
      and:
      > 1. B2B has been trading thousands of times over
      earnings, any price is expensive viewed by mkt.
      > 4.
      The business exchange concept they have in Onvia
      doesn't work. Why? No expertise, no niche advantage
      (measured by no. and spread of customers).

      As is the
      case with most people pushing their view, I found your
      analysis to be a stunning revelation of nothing.

      No
      info, no supporting figures, no quotes, no links, just
      bland supposition, general sweeping views and
      contradictory statements (ie. Telling people to sell NOW, and
      then having the gall to state "...I'm not short or
      long").

      Sorry if this sounds harsh. I'm just tired of people
      trumpeting ONVIA and others shooting ONVIA...all without
      supporting evidence. If you're going to post your
      thoughts...please think through the process. Other people are going
      to read it, and would like to know how you arrived
      at your analysis. I enjoy a laugh as much everyone
      else, but the repetitiveness of the ignorance shown is
      getting tiresome.

    • my reply to your well thought out
      post(hahaha)
      like i said b4 too much analyzing may not matter ..the
      reason is this market is momentum based..it seems the
      analyzing of onvi (or the bashing) is mainly done by the
      shorts finding only neg. that suits there cause..so take
      your opinion and stuff it up your poop!!! by the way i
      saw your profile (teeeheee) u must be kidding

      hahahahaha ...

    • of what is wrong with day traders.

      It's
      hard to believe, but this is a quote from him: "Again,
      another over-analyzer. It is just a stock. Forget the
      rest. Momentum up or momentum down is the game...not
      all the mumble jumble about biz model, competition,
      RFQ, etc. etc. Enough with the economics. It is not
      all that serious folks."

      (I took the liberty
      of cleaning up his verbiage some to make it clearer
      to English-speakers.)

      I submit that the
      business model of a company, their competition, what is
      the future for this sector, etc. would have A GREAT
      DEAL of interest to any SERIOUS investor. Over the
      past few years, the market has been so forgiving that
      even being a stupid ignoramus doesn't disqualify one
      from gaining (temporary) riches. Over the past few
      years, it didn't matter if you were too stupid to
      understand let alone analyze these factors. But now, as the
      market corrects itself a bit (as it always does),
      "investors" like hitthebid will be left for dead. It is clear
      that our pal hitthebid is feeling a little lost. He
      doesn't like it when it gets too hard for him to
      understand.

      Hitthebid: Why don't you go turn on the WWF on television
      and get back to a level you are comfortable
      with?

      Serious investors: Be glad that a few folks take the time
      to share insightful commentary. They make the board
      (occasionally) interesting. Keep posting your reasoned opinions.

    • a stock forget the rest momentum up or down is the game not all this mumble jumble biz model, competiton, RFQ etc,etc, enough with the economics it is not all that serious folks

    • gekkogreedisgood,

      You're obviously
      promoting B2B. Take it to that board please.

      1)
      Please cite your references/links to your:

      "1.
      Underwriters are selling.
      2. Institutional holders are
      selling"

      2) All .coms are revenue stories not earnings
      stories.

      3) Onvi's market is geared to "small to medium
      businesses" is the nature of the industry for everyone in
      this sector at this point.


      4) "No
      expertise, no niche advantage (measured by no. and spread of
      customers)" Name me some competitors around the same market
      cap that are doing better.

      5) "and the dot
      com shake out will take Onvia with it." If the "dot
      com shake out" takes out Onvi, by then the entire
      sector will have been mangled so badly, so will most all
      other competitors, if not the entire stock market in a
      long term crash mode. Lets face it, our record
      breaking DOW & NASDAQ are based on high tech and the
      internet sector particularly. You fail to mention that
      ONVI is currently in a pretty good cash position and
      particularly compared to smaller dot com
      competitors.

      And yes, I own 3000 shrs of ONVI and will this time
      next year.

      • 1 Reply to kg2931
      • Let me get this straight. Credit Suisse / First
        Boston takes Onvia out and issues a "strong buy" rating.
        This is a shock to whom? If I am taking someone out, I
        want to tell the world to buy it. Yes, my actions may
        be different, but this is business.

        Earnings
        were released and there seems to be some discussion
        over the content. One camp says it was bad because
        Onvia did not spend $6mm on advertising and that
        brought the loss in lower. This camp also points to the
        Gross Margin situation (as in negative).

        The
        other camp says earnings were good, since the loss was
        not as bad. They also point to dollar volume of sales
        and number of transactions.

        Now a discussion
        has started again about competitors - without
        reference to the now infamous "we have no competitors"
        comment. Onvia is not unique to this space, just look at
        Staples, Office Depot, Office.com, etc.

        It causes
        me great concern to see the following:

        1)
        Whether perceived or real, the suggestion that Fisrt
        Boston is selling is not good.
        2) That there appears
        to be little support for the model - atleast right
        now. Reasons are decent earnings and the stock has not
        responded.
        3) The overall B2B space is the whipping boy right
        now. All stocks in this sector are down and there are
        others sitting on the sidelines waiting to get
        in.

        Either way, either view you have this will be a very
        intersting ride. I wonder if anyone out there is looking at
        Onvia as a purchase target?

    • that onvi will end up being an OTC stock before this is all said and done with?

 
ONVI
4.60+0.07(+1.55%)Jul 22 3:47 PMEDT

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