Onvia Inc. Message Board
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ONVI under pressure my advice& strategy
You should really think about your pain
thershold:
1. Underwriters are selling.
2. Institutional
holders are selling.
Not a good sign because these
guys know hell lot more facts than we do. They know
things we don't.
Strategy:
1. Hold on and
get thru the pain. It could be a few years having
money locked up.
2. Sell now and hope to buy in
later.
3. Sell Onvia and buy Merrill Lynch B2B
holders
I chose #3 but #2 is okay because:
1. B2B
has been trading thousands of times over earnings,
any price is expensive viewed by mkt.
2. Onvia is
a revenue story not a earnings story. Nowhere near
the black and cash burn rate needs to slow. They lose
$2 for every dollar of revenue. That's not
good.
3. Small to medium businesses is less
lucrative/margin than big businesses. Plus the reach to small
business requires more contact/work/education/reach than
the bigger businesses.
4. The business exchange
concept they have in Onvia doesn't work. Why? No
expertise, no niche advantage (measured by no. and spread of
customers).
The business will grow no doubt but it requires
another 2-3 years of cash burnt and only if it survives
with more funding. I am less optimistic and the dot
com shake out will take Onvia with it.
I won't
be shorting, but I am not buying the story. With
last few month's hype, anything is a buy. In this
market, you'd better off getting the big
names/leaders.
My prefer pick is #3
If you like to reduce
exposure but still want to be in B2B, I would buy Merriall
Lynch's B2B holder. I think the ticker is BBH or BHH
(can't remember exactly).
These are traded in
lots of 100 shares. Each share holds a basket of
primier stocks in its class. So you have Commerce One,
Ariba as well as small names like Sciquest and I think
Onvia too.
I'd sell out Onvia and simply buy the
HOLDRs they have to limit my potential loss but still
allows significant gains in the sector. Remember, you
don't want to be overexpose in one stock right now. If
you had HOLDRS, you would have enjoyed the Commerce
One rise in the past 2 days right? And who knows
which B2B will go up? But everytime one goes up, it
doesn't mean the whole sector does. Bu you can't buy the
whole sector. You can.
Think about this. I am
not after a war. I am not long or short Onvia
anymore. I just want to teach some of you better
strategies to play through these ups and downs. I do hold
some B2B holders myself just to let you know
also.
Think about it!-
...but oh well.
Heya. Perhaps you might
consider voluntary disclosure on the source for several of
your points.
Namely:
> 1. Underwriters
are selling.
> 2. Institutional holders are
selling.
and:
> 1. B2B has been trading thousands of times over
earnings, any price is expensive viewed by mkt.
> 4.
The business exchange concept they have in Onvia
doesn't work. Why? No expertise, no niche advantage
(measured by no. and spread of customers).
As is the
case with most people pushing their view, I found your
analysis to be a stunning revelation of nothing.
No
info, no supporting figures, no quotes, no links, just
bland supposition, general sweeping views and
contradictory statements (ie. Telling people to sell NOW, and
then having the gall to state "...I'm not short or
long").
Sorry if this sounds harsh. I'm just tired of people
trumpeting ONVIA and others shooting ONVIA...all without
supporting evidence. If you're going to post your
thoughts...please think through the process. Other people are going
to read it, and would like to know how you arrived
at your analysis. I enjoy a laugh as much everyone
else, but the repetitiveness of the ignorance shown is
getting tiresome. -
my reply to your well thought out
post(hahaha)
like i said b4 too much analyzing may not matter ..the
reason is this market is momentum based..it seems the
analyzing of onvi (or the bashing) is mainly done by the
shorts finding only neg. that suits there cause..so take
your opinion and stuff it up your poop!!! by the way i
saw your profile (teeeheee) u must be kidding
hahahahaha ... -
of what is wrong with day traders.
It's
hard to believe, but this is a quote from him: "Again,
another over-analyzer. It is just a stock. Forget the
rest. Momentum up or momentum down is the game...not
all the mumble jumble about biz model, competition,
RFQ, etc. etc. Enough with the economics. It is not
all that serious folks."
(I took the liberty
of cleaning up his verbiage some to make it clearer
to English-speakers.)
I submit that the
business model of a company, their competition, what is
the future for this sector, etc. would have A GREAT
DEAL of interest to any SERIOUS investor. Over the
past few years, the market has been so forgiving that
even being a stupid ignoramus doesn't disqualify one
from gaining (temporary) riches. Over the past few
years, it didn't matter if you were too stupid to
understand let alone analyze these factors. But now, as the
market corrects itself a bit (as it always does),
"investors" like hitthebid will be left for dead. It is clear
that our pal hitthebid is feeling a little lost. He
doesn't like it when it gets too hard for him to
understand.
Hitthebid: Why don't you go turn on the WWF on television
and get back to a level you are comfortable
with?
Serious investors: Be glad that a few folks take the time
to share insightful commentary. They make the board
(occasionally) interesting. Keep posting your reasoned opinions. -
a stock forget the rest momentum up or down is the game not all this mumble jumble biz model, competiton, RFQ etc,etc, enough with the economics it is not all that serious folks
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gekkogreedisgood,
You're obviously
promoting B2B. Take it to that board please.
1)
Please cite your references/links to your:
"1.
Underwriters are selling.
2. Institutional holders are
selling"
2) All .coms are revenue stories not earnings
stories.
3) Onvi's market is geared to "small to medium
businesses" is the nature of the industry for everyone in
this sector at this point.
4) "No
expertise, no niche advantage (measured by no. and spread of
customers)" Name me some competitors around the same market
cap that are doing better.
5) "and the dot
com shake out will take Onvia with it." If the "dot
com shake out" takes out Onvi, by then the entire
sector will have been mangled so badly, so will most all
other competitors, if not the entire stock market in a
long term crash mode. Lets face it, our record
breaking DOW & NASDAQ are based on high tech and the
internet sector particularly. You fail to mention that
ONVI is currently in a pretty good cash position and
particularly compared to smaller dot com
competitors.
And yes, I own 3000 shrs of ONVI and will this time
next year.- 1 Reply to kg2931
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Let me get this straight. Credit Suisse / First
Boston takes Onvia out and issues a "strong buy" rating.
This is a shock to whom? If I am taking someone out, I
want to tell the world to buy it. Yes, my actions may
be different, but this is business.
Earnings
were released and there seems to be some discussion
over the content. One camp says it was bad because
Onvia did not spend $6mm on advertising and that
brought the loss in lower. This camp also points to the
Gross Margin situation (as in negative).
The
other camp says earnings were good, since the loss was
not as bad. They also point to dollar volume of sales
and number of transactions.
Now a discussion
has started again about competitors - without
reference to the now infamous "we have no competitors"
comment. Onvia is not unique to this space, just look at
Staples, Office Depot, Office.com, etc.
It causes
me great concern to see the following:
1)
Whether perceived or real, the suggestion that Fisrt
Boston is selling is not good.
2) That there appears
to be little support for the model - atleast right
now. Reasons are decent earnings and the stock has not
responded.
3) The overall B2B space is the whipping boy right
now. All stocks in this sector are down and there are
others sitting on the sidelines waiting to get
in.
Either way, either view you have this will be a very
intersting ride. I wonder if anyone out there is looking at
Onvia as a purchase target?
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that onvi will end up being an OTC stock before this is all said and done with?
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