It goes without saying that this is a risky stock. While there is potential for great gain (see INHX as a prime example,) INHX was working on a drug to combat Hepatitis C, while the main drug ECYT is currently working on is to combat ovarian cancer (and only ovarian cancer resistant to the platinum based drugs which are currently the standard treatment.)
That is not to say that the drug does not have great potential. The whole idea of using the class of drugs that ECYT is developing is conceptually sound, and if successful for its current lead compound, there is a great chance that the company gets bought out at a significant premium and everyone cashes in. That is the good news.
The bad news, however, is that the lead drug does not perform well and the company inevitably folds. If you read their detailed November 14th 10-Q form, you can become aware of just how many enormous hurdles there are for these drugs to succeed.
Finally, the timeline is likely to be quite long for you to see any big change from the current ~$3.50 stock valuation. There is only one catalyst coming soon, an application to commercialize their drug in Europe (which even they say is unlikely to succeed at this stage, without successful Phase 3 testing, so negative short-term catalyst.)
Basically, the strategy of the company right now is to complete these inherently costly clinical trials and hope for the best, bleeding money all the while. The company has also issued only about ~37 million out of a total of 100 million shares, so the possibility for dilution is high.
If you have a chunk of money you are willing to take a huge gamble on for about two years, then this might be a good one to try. If you are expecting short-term gains or a solid likelihood of success, I think you should look elsewhere. Of course, nothing said here is financial advice and I advise you all to do your own research and contact any duly authorized financial adviser you have before investing, but this is just my plain opinion.
I do not see a buyback. They need the money they have to get through the 3rd stage trials and get EC145 approved by the FDA.
The real value for this company is having a innovative cancer-fighting drug on the market.
I think you need to do some more investigation. The company never said that they expect the EU to rejection their application. While it is always possible, the company has been pretty clear that their expectation is to file for approval and to receive it in 2013.
You make big claims about the drug not working when it hit is primary endpoint with statistical significance. The only reason that it did not hit OS as well was that the control group was too small and was greatly influenced by outliers. But feel free to stay away or short as I am pretty confident ECYT is going to be a big winner.
I agree, if anybody wants to invest in cheap, high potential BIO, ECYT is now one of the / or might be the top pick at bargain pricing, ...
There's no need to go for the bait. At $11 or $14, this may have been risky. But below $4 it's dirt cheap. All you have to know is that the company is probably worth $3.50 if NOTHING goes right, just based on the cash they hold. That means that whatever risk there was has been effectively eliminated. So as of now, it either flatlines on no news, or starts appreciating on ANY good news.
Risk reward here is very good. So whether things ever TURN OUT, I sure don't care. Before that, there will be enough good news to trade this to $5 or $6. 1/2 a million shares bought by insiders should be a loud statement. For those who dismiss it, you will miss the train. That's ok. I'll wave to you from my seat, right in front.