Acceptance of EU regulatory filings for vintafolide and its companion diagnostic
etarfolatide for ovarian cancer could lead to conditional approval in H213. While the
muted share price reaction to this news suggests low market expectations, recent
EMA decisions raise the possibility of approval on Phase II PFS data. Given
Endocyte’s modest valuation and low investor expectations, EU conditional
approval offers favourable risk/reward and could provide significant upside.
With an EV of only $142m, we believe the market is significantly underestimating the
potential of vintafolide in ovarian cancer, other indications (lung cancer, Phase IIb
data in H114), or the value of the Merck licensing deal (potential for additional
indications). Moreover, given Endocyte’s modest EV and low investor expectations,
EU conditional approval for vintafolide in H213 could offer significant upside.