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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • offshoredneck offshoredneck Oct 20, 2004 4:16 PM Flag

    EXM's Poor Performance Today

    It is obvious there is no utility in explaining to most on this board that EXM has nothing to do with the tanker business or that high oil prices hurt them or that insider sales are not good or that this is fundamentally around 800% overvalued. Half the longs on this board can not comprehend such mundane issues while the other half are simple daytrades looking at charts and praying for EXM to show up on the next IBD list. Daytrades can whip EXM around, very easy to do, one day up huge, next day down.

    Two simple points: 1) the tanker stocks were up huge today and with EXM's beta, I thought it would have been up 3 to 5 points, barely up a half a point--clearly this has run out of steam, it would have made a huge run in prior weeks, EXM's relative performance was terrible 2) yes EXM can trade up and down huge any one day-- a short squeeze, a large institution selling, or more insider selling, etc--it fluctuates radically on any one day BUT it will not levitate forever, this is not a high tech or biomedical company--this is a small company with seriously aged assets in a commodity business--at some point the rallies are going to stop and the fundamental value will take over and lead in one direction, that is sharply down. So every day a daytrader buys this thing, he/she has to ask themselves is this the day the rallys stop forever.

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    • on one hand you say exm is not in the tanker business then on the other hand you say it should have been up 3-5pts with the tanker stocks.hu

      • 1 Reply to seemefish
      • I hope whatever your position is you make money but, with all due respect, please read carefully what I Post. What did I write, "there is no utility in explaining to most on this board that EXM has nothing to do with the tanker business", ok, got it. "Investors" bid this up because tankers are up or the NYTimes has a front page bullish tanker story. As I posted, people don't understand what they are buying, EXM formerly used to run up because, naivelly, people buy EXM based on tanker news. I could care less, it has nothing to do with tankers. My biggest regret is I can not short anymore EXM.

        So please, re-read my post and understand why it "should" have been up 3-5 pts.

    • I agree with that excellent post. Higher oil prices only hurt EXM. The past two days could have been a short covering - maybe he expects a technical bounce.

      Either way if you hold this overnight you had better be prepared for the day when it doesn't open up $1 on 2,000 just to inflate that days starting point. One day it will open down and continue down, maybe violently.

      I can't understand why anyone would bid for stock at these levels. There are other mo mo plays out there that are less risky...IMHO.

 
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