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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • sblackmo1 sblackmo1 Mar 9, 2005 11:45 AM Flag

    still expect...

    now i think my calculations are right, someone check me...
    11.64 million shares outstanding, then they issued 2.2 million more in december, and now 5.9 million. So we're talking about exactly 20 million shares, if you include the 100k shares of options that will be exercised.
    they earned .81 cents or roughly 9.5 million dollars in Q4. So annualize that and you get 38 million dollars, now double that for the doubling in dwt, and you get 76 million dollars. So if prices stay the same in 2005 as Q4, i'm seeing $3.80 per shares in earnings.
    Assuming prices stay the same, but if the market pricing improves like i think it will, we'll see over $4.00 per share with the secondary offering.
    So EXM is trading at about 6x forward earnings.
    Just added a position this morning, feel now that the secondary has been announced the cloud over the company is gone, and now WE HAVE A WEBSITE TOO. LOL
    black

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    • first off, good point- the CEO was granted 100k options when he was hired with a strike price of 31.79... he has a stake in seeing exm stock price rise as well (good thing)

      also i do not expect them to use up all 5.899M shares that they said is max dilution, chances are they will offer between 3.5 and 4.5M shares, **although if they do issue more than 4.5M shares that is only bc they have excessive demand for the issuance and chances are the price they get will be high as well.

      we will see in time (next few weeks, maybe even early next week) whether or not i am correct--> issue bt 3.5-4.5M shares , raise enough money to bring their total fleet to appx 20 vessels by mid year 2005. this is imho! trust me this offering is great for existing shareholders, its not mgmts fault the stock tanked yesterday- i understand completely the ire of many on this board- but again its not mgmts fault that the market is filled with short sighted simple morons that cannot see the true value of exm -for wtev reason, either lack of sources or lack of knowledge?... anyways exm will rebound in time, institutional investors will come on board- nice responsible mutual funds and other funds, long term holders... i would look out for some positive surprise announcements in weeks ahead.... uguys trusted me when i posted the signing of isminaki for 31,250 2.5weeks before the press release was issued... so ucan hear my p.o.v or dismiss it - the decision must be made by uall individually... all ican say is shorts bring it on! the more the btter !! i tempt you to leve ure short open for long!

    • good point in that "the clould has been removed"

    • Be careful, when you USE expected 20 million outstanding and current signed ships deal.

      The issue I want to point out is that, the SPO money WILL BE USED to BUY MORE SHIPS.

      For that, depending on what kind of ships they, they can easily expand the fleet to 25-30 ships, THIS YEAR.

 
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