One never knows precisely what motivates the institutions to buy. And certainly, institutions can, and too often are wrong in their purchases. A case that comes to mind is the secondary offer that a telecom company (UTSI ) did in Jan 2004, and Bank of America purchased several million shares @39. Today its at $10.
In the case of EXM, I agree with you that the valuation is extremely compelling, and that the price
is near a bottom. The fact remains that despite our
own dd of this stock, the sector as a whole is currently being valued by a much larger constellation of investors at 4 x 2005 earnings.
To make money on EXM, this sector as a whole is going to have to experience a multiple expansion. (or earnings will have to continue soaring). I dont think there is any mystery that EXM will be earning >$4/share in 2005, and >$5/share in 2006. But maybe Im too close to the story, and the story has not really gotten out. There certainly has been much headlining about the IPOs in the sector, but its worth noting that almost none of the IPO related stories spoke to the earnings pototential in the sector.
There is currently a wave of concern about commodities in general that's causing a pull back. Its probably little more than that, and the money will return to the sector.
Remember the homebuilders a few years back? All the smart money said that this was a low growth industry, and refused to afford a multiple to home builders that was then not much different than the drybulkers' mutiples today.
A few years later, the stocks in that sector doubled.
I certainly agree with you on the dd; we just have different opinions on what we see...that's all. I remember a lot of folks who didn't believe in MCX either. Cheers to us all there buddy...no need to ignore.
I don't think I understand your comment about Cantor and institutions going short. Actually there are not many shares short this stock if you look at key statistics. And I truly doubt institutions have gone short the very shares they purchased? Doesn't make sense does it?
As for earnings, you are right that they won't start showing up until 3rd quarter. But again, you purchased shares before the company even added these ships to their fleet?!?!?
And risk: why would EXM sell their shares at the all time high of $65? And why would an institution buy the shares that high when it was a craze that drove the prices to that height? I think it only makes sense to wait until now to purchase. This is the bottom. At least I do hope and believe so!!! Any ways, I am up on this stock but am trying to understand others opinions also.
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Credit Suisse First Boston, Seneca Capital, Duetsche Bank...are these all rank amateurs? It seems these big names are just some of the institutional investors of the company.
its liek leasing a car- they may give uthe car filled with gas but after that ure on ure own,... same here- all voyage costs are paid out of pocket by the lessee- ex port and canal dues, fuel and bunker - ONLY voyage operating expenses are paid for by exm (crew and maintenance...) under long term period charters
"I certainly agree with you on the dd; we just have different opinions on what we see...that's all. I remember a lot of folks who didn't believe in MCX either."
I started accumulating MCX at around
$3.83 - I'm currently 30K shares long on MCX and I expect it to run to about $15 this year; but do your own due diligence.