This spells trouble for all stocks as well as global growth. If USA suffers the emerging markets follow suit. I sold my share at $16.22 for a substantial loss from when I pick it up at $27.50 Should have sold earlier. My stupidity!!! Luckly I am making money else where and may breakeven. I will watch EXM and maybe purchase back when it hit the "SINGLE" digits. Right now EXM is to much of a gamble especially considering most commodities are out of favor because of slowing growth internationally and domestically. Good Luck but I believe there call on the single digits may be right. JMHO
MCCORKMICK I believe you are right in your assessment however it may be a year from now until we really know. Hang in there partner...
Lackey? You sound like a Frank Quattrone disciple, using the same valuation formulas that were applied during the dot-com boom.
EXM is not the company you think it is...you should have sold at $40 while you had your chance...
Reminds me of the story of the airplane pilot, with a few years of experience, who lost one engine, out of two, and couldn't discern how close he could get to the airport.
One of the passengers noticed the calamity in the cabin. The passenger stepped up to the cabin and asked if he could help. The pilot spitefully told him to take his seat - to which the passenger said "We'll never make it, we should make preparations to land the plane ASAP".
Pilot ignored the cautions of the passenger; and proceeded to max-out RPMs of remaining engine to compensate for loss of power. Then the pilot tested the restroom storage tanks to measure their fluid levels - and requested that the black-water toilet tanks be purged mid-flight in order to lighten the load. Then the pilot calculated how much fuel he had and decided he could purge a little and extend the life of hte engine. The pilot measured, calculated, and ciphered every angle until he was convinced of a course of action - based upon calculations.
After a few minutes the engine died - out of fuel. In the silence of the glide, the passenger stepped up to the cabin and asked the pilot if he needed help - the pilot angrily refused.
The bothersome passenger asked the pilot again "do you need some help? I know I can be of some help..."; the pilot screamed "no I don't need any
The bothersome passenger took his seat and the person in the seat next to him asked "why do you insist upon bothering the pilot? Can't you see that we need him to land this plane safely?".
To which the bothersome passenger said: "See those clouds over there? they tell me we are fighting a headwind that required two engines. No amount of figuring and ciphering will overcome the obvious."
Then the fellow passenger asked the passenger, "if you're so smart, then, how far can we make it given our current situation?"
To wit the bothersome passenger replied, "The scene of the crash".
good comeback, very substantive. listen the fact that it has gone down or that it may very well continue to go down does not change the analysis. i have patience. i have held exm for now going on 10months. i have not sold a single share for any price less than 40. if exm goes down any further i can handle that (thats why ive stressed non margin accts), in fact if it drops much more in the coming weeks, it will put me back in same position where i started and first came across exm and began accumulating. this company is not even recognizable and cant even be compared to company it was when i first looked at and began position 3/4 yrs ago. exm will have between 5.5-6.5 in eps depending on whther or not rates rally again in summer as they did last yr. next yr eps should be over 6 even if rates get cut in half simply for the fact that they will have benefit of full fleet for whole yr as opposed to just midyr acquisitions. if rates remain as they are, then exm could possibly earn this yr and next more cash than the stock price is worth and still have a fleet of 19 vessels to operate and/or sell. it is for that reason that at this pt i am indifferent towards its price movement. if it goes down any further be my guest.
Mccork....yes, Zhego may be lucky and if so,
he has a "double whammy" over you...that is being lucky and smart. Why don't you give credit where credit is due? Since early March you have been throwing this BS at us and all the stock did was drop from $28+ to the mid
$14's ...and it will go lower.
eventually all of you "strong buy" advocates
will be right...when the stock as at the $11-12
range which will come sooner rather than later.
"Do the math - if we arbitrarily use $300 million as the market value of the fleet, then the book value of EXM is $8. If we use 2x book then EXM is a $16/share stock."
zhego youre nothing more than a lucky idiot. yeh its better to be lucky than smart, but that doesnt change the fact that youre not smart. youre short exm for all the wrong reasons. your logic is flawed, thats not to say it wont go down further. book value is not a function of market value, as it stands exms current bv is between 12 and 13, and by year end it will be above 17. so go ahead and apply the 2X multiple you pulled out of your ass and you justified a 34 stock price for exm. good job!
"EXM will not garner that multiple because they have sold their LTCs on new boats too cheaply to cover acquisition costs. I assign a value of 1.5x book to derive $12 as a bottom target for this stock."
Ok fine the genius assigns 1.5X book, so thats a 25 stock price for exm! but the greatest stupidity is the prior statement. you are talking out of your ass once again by claiming that they sold their long term contracts at rates too low to cover costs! that is an absurdity and blatant lie! not only will they more than cover costs but the net income (net incoem is after costs for you slow witted person) will cover 50% of the purchase price of the goldmar and swift as disclosed in the 8k press release back in jan. the other ships will also more than cover costs and recover substantial return on investment.
the truth is idnt mind exm falling anymore, like i said it makes no difference at this point. if it goes down much more, i will have no problem paying close to what they will earn in income over the next few yrs. the thing that pisses me off is stupidity , the things , nonsensical things you post on this board just is amazing. you know so little aside from conspiracy theories about panayotides grand scheme to cut his noes to spit his face, and yet your 1000 share short is in the money...
oh btw its a fact they will have over 5 in eps locked in this yr plus another 19 vessels to either generate earnings in future for another 15-17 yrs or to sell them and pay us liquidating value,,, either way, even under worst case scenarios - shareholders will be left with more than the current stock price. that is to say if exm enters into moa witha nother company to sell all its vessels at current prices as soon as charters expire, plus add money from charters ... the net figure is more than current stock price. there are no 2ways about that.
I think EXM is gravely overpaying for capacity.
EXM once had a business model that leveraged inexpensive boats, with short life span, to exploit short-term capacity shortfalls.
They have reversed that model and now over-pay for long-life-span capacity to meet a spike in demand that will only last another year or two.
Their boats are over-priced; once the charters run out, EXM faces a liquidity problem.
That's why I argue for a lower price - they have no competitive advantage nor a business model that gives them leverage over others.
"Do the math - if we arbitrarily use $300 million as the market value of the fleet, then the book value of EXM is $8. If we use 2x book then EXM is a $16/share stock"
I guess the main variable here is the market value of the fleet. At $300 mill it comes out to around $16 mill per boat. Isn't that rather low?