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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • Ronharv Ronharv May 28, 2006 2:05 PM Flag

    Human Nature

    (Contains some OT comments.)
    Message boards basically exist for people to try to convince each other that they haven't made a mistake. And this board, which has brighter posters than most I've seen, reflects that inclination. Playtow urged bailing when the stock was 16. After having had a few successful trades in EXM, I did so and said that I was betting big on my favorite stock, C. E. Franklin (CFK), Canada's largest oil services company. So EXM has been cut in half and Playtow is being attacked because he was right. (Many citizens still resent France and Germany for being right about our Iraq adventure.) In the meantime CFK has doubled (and has made me significant money twice in the volatile interim). It still remains my favorite stock and is headed, I believe, for a 50% to 70% rise by Jan. '07 or earlier. But the avg. of the two analysts' forecasts for EXM 2007 earnings is a disheartening .55. Doesn't mean they're right, of course, but it does look bad. If the analysts are right EXM could see the 5's or 6's. And Playtow, the messenger, will likely be attacked even more.

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    • Give me a break, another worshiper of dumb short play_tow?

      Has play_tow been right?

      Did he say buy when the stock hit $7.3?

      He is just a dumb short that does not know how to value a stock and when to take profit and cover his short positions.

    • You are basically correct. Another problem that I see is that so many are buying now based on the rear view mirror. Then next year isn't going to anything like the last two.

      At this time I'd think waiting till around September would be a better strategy as after the next two Q's it will be obvious things have changed.

      • 1 Reply to Management_clowns
      • <<At this time I'd think waiting till around September would be a better strategy as after the next two Q's it will be obvious things have changed.>>

        I don't try to catch the exact bottom because I am not God. When I see a stock that is already extremely undervalued, I start my accumulation process.

        Last year while I was accumulating MUSA and ZEUS below book values, MUSA suddenly got buy out one day and the stock gapped up 50% instantly. That was while the steel prices were still falling and the MUSA stock prices were still falling. If I were trying to time and catch the exact bottom on MUSA, I would have missed that completely. As for ZEUS, I collected it from $15 something all the way down to the exact bottom at $13 something. ZEUS is now trading at $30+. I had plenty of opportunities to take big profits at much higher prices even for those stocks that I paid $15 something.

        When a stock is so deeply undervalued, it really does not matter whether it will go down a bit further or not. When it continues to go down, I simply buy some more. I know I will be able to profit from every single share of them. The cheaper it gets the bigger the profits later.

        Just buy more if it goes down further, and you will actually be able to catch the exact bottom. EXM will be above book value sooner or later. I have decades of trading experience, and have not encountered any profitable company that stays under book value forever. They all eventually go above book value. I have not lost a dime buying profitable companies trading deeply below book value yet.

        That is why stocks like EXM are really rare gems for value investors. It is not easy to find profitable companies trading so deeply below book value. Stocks like EXM have great potential to double or triple your money safely. Your money is backed by tangible net assets that are worth almost twice of your investment. This is a really safe investment. All you need is guts to buy when others are selling and patients to wait for your investment to double or triple.

 
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