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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • joshshlomi joshshlomi Jun 23, 2006 10:38 AM Flag

    Technicals are starting to improve.

    Pierced the 50DMA, stochastics and MACD up, fast line crossed the slow line.

    http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=exm&Refer=http://clearstat
    ion.etrade.com/

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    • Sorry, but compared to EXM ------ CRYP is CRAP.

      (Please excuse my being rude, but it just came out.)

    • Jmiguel2831, CRYP growth rate may not be sustainable at all. If you are expecting 50% earning growth rate from CRYP, you may be disappointed big time. 8 analysts are expecting only 1% growth for CRYP next year.

      But just to show you the true value of value investment, let us do some hypothetical calculation to help you understand why CRYP is no where near the good value presented by EXM.

      Let us make some assumptions that are clearly favoring CRYP. Let us assume EXM will not make any earning from now on, so its book value will not increase any more, and since CRYP is expected to make $0.5 of earning this quarter, let us start from that and assume that will grow 12.5% each quarter.

      CRYP has to build its book value to about $34 per share to make its current $23.33 stock price to be 31% under book value just like EXM now. According to Yahoo, CRYP book value is currently at $7.125 per share. If you do some calculations, you will find that CRYP will not be able to catch up to the value of EXM until at least 19 quarters from now. That is almost 5 years for it to catch up to the value bargain that EXM is already providing NOW.

      What is the odd of CRYP continue to grow earnings at 12.5% rate each quarter for 19 quarters without missing a beat? What is the odd of EXM to not make a penny of earning for the next 19 quarters?

      The reality is CRYP will probably never be able to catch up to the deep value bargain presented by EXM here.

      Again, CRYP is no where near the value presented by EXM, and it should not even be brought up here. Otherwise, we will be discussing all stocks in the world in this board pretty soon, and I sure do not want to waste my time doing that. This is still a board for EXM.

    • ...But grows year over year at a pace of + 50%

    • careful_investor_wins careful_investor_wins Jun 28, 2006 12:58 PM Flag

      CRYP is trading at more than 3 times above book value.
      It is not even a value play. It is 5 times more expensive than EXM from value point of view. You should not even bring it up here.

    • Best value plays EXM and TMR
      My favorite...CRYP
      Long in all.

    • careful_investor_wins careful_investor_wins Jun 28, 2006 12:31 PM Flag

      We talked about HDL before.
      You can go back to those posts.

    • What do you guys think of Handleman (HDL). They are selling at a bit over half of book value and are profitable.
      -------------------------------------------------
      Might be a good book value but I think that
      business is on its way out.
      Distributing music NOW !please convince me
      why anyone should invest in this?? or hold on
      to the shares ?
      I'am listening.
      Thank you

    • Stop touting your over-the-counter FRPT, would you?

      That company cannot even stay profitable, and it almost has no equity left for investors.

      That is a very expensive pumped up bubble stock.

      FRPT should be a penny stock.

    • A correction:

      Bertelmanns as a whole is worth about USD 20 billion. The music piece of it is hard to figure, but probably in the neighborhood of USD 1.5 - 5 billion. Bertelmans is currently planning to sell its Music Publishing business (labels) and keep its share of Sony BMG (distribution).

      I'll meander over to the HDL board to post anything else specific to the company or the industry.

    • <<http://www.valueinvestigator.com/valuefavourites/hdl.shtml

      This is a write up of Handleman from Irwin Micahel of ABC funds who has a superior track record. I own shares in Handleman and ain't gonna sell anytime soon. I also bought some shares in EXM last week.

      EricSchleien.com>>

      I read it, and Irwin Micahel apparently doesn't know wholesale distribution. Bertelsmann Music Group (BMG), a private German company, is a, if not the eight hundred pound gorilla in worldwide wholesale distribution of music. There are about five companies that make up 85% of music distribution and HDL is not one of them. But you wouldn't know that if you were only looking at publicly traded companies or only reading HDL's financials. If BMG were public it would be reporting multiple billions in revenue and a market cap upwards of USD 10 billion. HDL is about a USD 150 million market cap.

      I'm not saying HDL isn't all that, just that it's missing the bag of chips. If BMG wanted to squeeze HDL they would pop (although BMG has already been sanctioned in the US for price fixing), more likely if BMG saw something they liked they would just acquire HDL, like they did with Napster, parts of Sony, etc.

      What HDL has going for it is mix management, which is something that very large distributors don't do very well. BMG also suffers from corporate schlerosis, partly from being old school German, partly from being family controlled and private. HDL could just sit under the radar and watch the revolution in music distribution slowly make the Sony's and BMGs and EMIs less relevant.

      Like I said before it's on my watch list. I'd love to see companies like Sony and Time Warner go extinct and let little up and comers like HDL get a shot.

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