You seem like a reasonable guy, you really should also look into shipbuilding capacity to get a feel for the outlook of any and all drybulk companies beyond 2009. I can give you some links to data for you to peruse if you would like, but the main points are these: Tanker conversions are adding 13 million DWT in the coming year or so and shipbuilding capacity which was estimated to be 73 mdwt in 07 but actually turned out to be 79 mdwt is slated to be 157 mdwt in 2009. Its at 96 mdwt now. There is also a shift in the orderbook that is happening due to delays in gas liqeufaction plant projects in Qatar, Norway and Nigeria. That being LNG tankers are being postponed opening up berths for projects owners want pushed up, namely bulkers.