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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • audiophule audiophule Apr 26, 2008 8:54 AM Flag

    Slimtrading778

    You say, "Many of those ecxpected boats hitting the water will not make it because of the credit crunch and tighter lending standards,..." There have been two, VLOCs, cancelled by Jinhui. They said it was credit, others speculate it was due to that segment of the orderbook, ships over 250k, being now at 350% of the current fleet that caused them to cancel. The spate of conversions of VLCCs to VLOCs has cause the segment of VLOCS, (220k and up) to be the single largest growth segment in all bulkers. The fleet of 15 will grow to a couple HUNDRED by 2013. Mostly for the Brazil/China route, with some Rotterdam trips in as well. Another situation is the CECO ships that were only in discussion phase. They did order 20, rather than 60. These never got to the orderbook, so the change didn't alter it any. And they would have been stretching to get it done, no partial stock deal available as in the EXM/QMAR deal. Can you point to any others that are in jeopardy or have been cancelled? I suspect you are really parroting what some ownders and some media who quote them put forth.

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    • I acn't pinpoint the article I read about a shipbuilder going bust because of financing issues but you just have to look at the BDI really. All the industry, analysts, expert bets were that capacity would be rising and earning thus falling. So why is BDI going up and at a breakneck speed at that? Certainly they couldn't possibly all be wrong - AGAIN could they?

      I'm betting they are and share volume on all the bulker charts is saying the same.

      • 4 Replies to slimtrading778
      • Final thought on newbuilds 08 and 09: the price paid for these vessels when ordered were low enough compared to what prompt tonnage is fetching today that there is no economic reason whatsover that they won't get fully financed and every one of them built. The Capes for delivery this year and next were likely ordered for neighborhood of 80 million. Panas for 50 million. Newbuild Capes with prompt delivery are fetching 160 million, 09 deliveries getting 150. Why would a shipowner with a berth assigned and deposits paid not be able to secure financing on a vessel they could resell immediately for double what they paid? Simply won't happen, in my opinion. Have a good weekend. Be glad to answer any questions or provide sources.

      • The Dhumi yard in Korea: Dhumi Heavy Industries goes bust

        A new South Korean shipyard has collapsed before it could start on orders it had secured last year.

        Dhumi Heavy Industries bagged up to 20 handysize-bulker contracts from three companies but is now said to have stopped its shipbuilding activities after its owner ran into cash-flow problems.

        Shipbuilding sources say the owner, known only as "Mr Lee", was declared bankrupt by a South Korean court last December. He had been unable to repay loans he had taken out.

        Dhumi is unable to continue without a cash injection and already some employees are said to have left.

        A former employee tells TradeWinds Aktif Denizcilik of Turkey, Navimar of Switzerland and a Singapore-based company called KNC ordered newbuildings at Dhumi. Aktif is said to have contracted six ships plus four options, while KNC booked eight newbuildings and Navimar two.

        The former Dhumi employee says steel cutting for the first ship was due to start this year but construction of the shipbuilding site has not even started.

        He claims Lee has not been seen for some time. Lee is said to have no shipbuilding experience but to control an architecture firm and cement-making factory in Mokpo.

        Dhumi is located near Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries at Mokpo but the two are not connected.

        The original plan was to equip the yard with two slipways and a floating dock of 240 metres in length. The size of the entire facility was slated to be around 300,000 square metres.

        Some shipbuilding players say Lee is not the sole investor behind Dhumi. The backers reportedly had cash to rent yard space and were hoping to make money from the shipbuilding boom. However, as they apparently do not own much in the way of assets, the banks were unwilling to issue refund guarantees.

        "With no refund guarantees issued, owners will not put down their first downpayments and the yard will not have cash to procure shipbuilding materials and build its facilities," said a market expert. "We have been expecting some new yards that joined the business during the boom of the past one or two years to go bust, as the investors behind them are not serious shipbuilders and the investments are borrowed money."

        By Irene Ang, Singapore
        published: 28 March 2008

        It is important to note that 9 ships were on order at Dhumi only. The Turkish owner, Aktif Denizcilik, has now ordered 10 x 32,000 dwt Handies at the more-reputable Jinse Shipbuilding, in Korea. So, in actual fact, this little Dhumi incident has caused the dry bulk orderbook to increase by 0.32 mdwt.

      • You have to realize what the BDI is. It is the rates that spot vessels are getting at this point in time for one trip from one place to another. It says nothing whatsover about next month, next year or any future time. FFAs speak to that loosely. And they suggest rates will be half what they are now in 2009, lower further out. All the "experts" seem to agree that beyond 2009, rates are poised to fall. Most of those same folks also suggest that all of 08 will be very strong and perhaps set new records. Both situation makes sense. Here's the main reason why: shipbuilding capacity. In 2006, the actual deliveries of ships in terms of DWT was 77 million. In 2007 actual deliveries were 79 million. Both figures were well over the estimated 68 and 73 that Worldyards put forth and were criticized as being "absurdly high". The shipbuilding industry brought on way more capacity than anyone ever thought possible. The output estimate for 08 was for 82 mdwt capacity in 2005. There is right now 90 million dwt, and will reach 96 by the end of the year. Here is where it goes crazy, 2009. The dwt output capacity, and this is in yards which are permitted, financed, partially and some nearly fully completed is going to be 157 mdwt. The orderbook for 2009 stands at 143 mdwt. So they will more than likely fullfil the 09 book and catch up all late deliveries as well. Here's the report: http://download.hellenicshippingnews.com/pdf/worldyards/RealityCheck3years%20on.pdf In the next post, I'll address the yard going bust to which you allude.

      • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 26, 2008 12:14 PM Flag

        exactly!

        im appreciate your guys information as im strikly a technicals traders, still keeping in mind i want a feel for fundamental strength and directions.

        pepper

 
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