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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • jenniea25 jenniea25 May 16, 2008 6:33 PM Flag

    Anyone is confident EXM beat earning?

    Anyone holding this until monday earning? YES OR NO?

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    • BDI is too strong

      Its going to reach 15000 this year

    • Your stop is only good for regular market hours. In the past, I have just taken my gains in the premarket because you never know if it will hold for the open at 9:30.

      I can tell you now, if the stock spikes 10%, I'm selling at least half of what I have left.

    • I would put a stop a little lower than that. I'm thinking at least 3%. This is why I like trailing stops, if the stock spikes up, so does your stop. Eventually you will get stopped out which is a good thing.

    • 1. One of THE LARGEST dry shipping fleets in the industry, after the combination with Quintana Maritime.

      2. Management team is very very experienced and honest.

      3. Location of the company (Port of Pireaus, outside Athens Greece) feeds directly into China, India and the Middle East.

      4. Most of the EXM's ships are marketed in the SPOT market, which makes it very very appealing at the moment, since The DRY-BULK index is hitting all time highs, and it will continue to do so for the next 2 years, at minimum.

      5. Estimated next-year P/E Ratio is not factoring in the increase of the revenue from the Quintana acquisition. I DO believe the analysts have done a very poor job reflecting the company's true earnings power. Very few analysts truly understand the Dry-Shipping industry. To give you a rather simple example, back in the '70s (oil embargo, food shortages, etc...), many Greek shipping companies made huge money (Does the name Aristotle Onnasis rings any bells ?). We got exactly the same scenario right now.

      6. Japan's industrialization lasted 10 years ('80s-'90s). Do you think that China's and India's industrialization will only last 3 years ? We are only on the THIRD YEAR of China's industrialization. And the shippers are a HUGE driving force behind this.

    • baecorine:

      I have a question, or curious? EXM reports before the bell, ok, but what time, exactly. I was thinking setting a stop loss/limit order now is stupid, cause pre-market will be traded? How are you going to play this? Or you just holding for Q2&Q3? Thanks, aprreciate thoughts here?

    • Exactly right! You made 31% in a week, come on, does it get any better than that? Versuse 3.4% yearly on a CD, I think you have done very well, wouldn't you say?

      Once you sell the stock have the profit, it's yours, they can't take it from you Monday morning.

      My position made me 43k on Friday, 10k on Thursday, a toal of 86k for the week, was I a fool for cashing in on 75% of my position? My cost basis on my remaining shares is about $15/share. I have the profit in hand and I have 3k shares left.

      The 3k shares are the same as owning 6k shares 6 weeks ago, that's how I look at it. I will sit on my cash and 3k shares for now. We are due for a breather in the markets. If we get a pull back, I'll buy more, if not, I own 3k shares already.

      Start looking at oil refiners, they are the most beaten up stocks in the market, just like dry bulk shipper were 6 weeks ago. Don't buy anything that has already run up, look for cheap stocks in sectors that are out of favor. Refiners will recover and the stocks could double as well. VLO, TSO, FTO, HOC, MRO, ALJ, WNR are the ones I watch.

    • There are no shortables! How many times do I have to remind you? All you can do is buy puts!

    • No way that EXM will meet earnings estimates. They will be at least a dime short.

      Note - I don't own any EXM and I am not short. Think DRYS is the better investment given the dilution from the QMAR purchase. The boats received from QMAR were on long term contracts at low rates. EXM is overpriced at these levels.

      Good luck anyhow...

      • 1 Reply to quizzical_bob
      • Yeah, right. Last year EXM had a high of 80! With Qmar, regardless of the longer charter, WIll add vale per share. EXM is still cheap.
        The safe way to play earnings, in fact this is what I am going to do:

        Set a stop loss for a dollar the last 10-15 minutes of trading Monday. In other words, if the the pps is, say 57.72-- I will set a stop loss @ 56.72. If EXM misses, which I dought, you're still safe. If EXM beats, up she goes, safe either way. I hope this helps?

    • If I were you, I would set a stop loss of 1.00 the last fifteen minutes, or less, of the trading day, Monday.In other words, if the pps is at 57.72, set the stop loss at 56.72. This way you limit any loss, if she drops, and up up and away if earnings are good. This is my action plan anyway. Thanks and good luck. I think we make a push UP.

    • I took my 31% profit made in one week and am sitting back until Monday. If it had great earnings and shoots up I will be sad. But as they say pigs get slaughtered and I ain't taking a chance on losing my profit. Another day...Captain Morgan...arrrrrr...

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