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  • baecorine baecorine May 23, 2008 4:41 PM Flag

    Sold it all

    Sorry guys, I decided to dump it all at $48 today, enough is enough. I have never seen a stock behave like this in my life. The way they held it in place and constantly dropped it on 100 share bids is not the game I want to play anymore.

    This can still go down more, I'd rather be in cash for the weekend. I regret not dumping it all last Friday or on Monday morning. Aside from a horrible week in the market, any stock that runs up into earnings should be sold no matter what. I know better, sold a good chunk last Friday but I took the bait with all the pumping of the sector on CNBC.

    The fact is we doubled and now they are going to short it to no end. $48 was a wall, it was met with more shorting. I think they can still take this down to $45 or even lower.

    I'm pissed I didn't take my own advice and short SINO this morning. I posted to short it and didn't do it myself. Then again, you could have shorted any of the shippers and made money all week.

    I'm deeply saddened to see how this market can take a sector apart in such a short time. Earnings and fundamentals don't mean a damn thing anymore when you face short sellers. Logic is out the window, P/E ratios don't protect you, AAPL was up today and trades at 40x earnings while EXM is at 6x.

    The only safe and liquid trades in this market are the indexes or ETF's. The bid/ask spread on EXM was all over the place this week. I will only trade ETF's like QLD and QID or very liquid stocks like MSFT or INTC from now on. As soon as you buy an individial small to mid cap stock, you are subject to a real a$$ kicking. Holding over the weekend just didn't appeal to me. My plan was to ride EXM out until Thursday and sell. Even though it was already down $7, I should have done that.

    It didn't matter if the market was up or down, the bulkers got destroyed this week. The only reason is because shorts could and because they had a run. Are they way too cheap, of course they are but they could get even cheaper if this market keeps selling off. Fidelity had no shortables since I owned EXM but I bet my shares were loaned short.

    I deserve what I got this week, I could have sold any time but I held on hoping for the best. I wasn't willing to sell at $60, $57, $55, $53, $50.50, today I sold at $48, what a shame. This is why stops are so important. Set the stop, if it triggers, never look back. Instead of having a profit, I took a loss, piss poor investing and trading. We are still in a bear market, buy and hold doesn't work. In reality, your money should be off the table at 3:30PM every day.

    I'm taking next week off from the market since I'll be traveling. I'm so stressed from this week I need the break. The best time to trade is earnings season, I'll buy some calls when this market bottoms and wait for earnings. $130+ oil killed the markets and if oil goes higher, it will really roll over. Banks are out of cash again, housing sucks, the consumer is tapped and hurricane season starts. If oil hits $150, the Dow will be at 11,000.

    Time to step aside and see how this all plays out.

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    • Good post you are on track now, especially the part about [ staying in cash ] over night......Houseing defaults are [ accelarating ......] everything will get worse [ earnings ] and [ economic data ] thats all you need to know.Its a bear mkt, co will be hit with [ higher imput costs and slowing global demand ] the double whammy for profits..........Doesnt matter how good the stock is in a bad mkt its going down. S and P trialing p / e is [ expensive ] in my view............if we get mutiple compression you can really kiss it good bye say from 21 to 24 ish to how about 10.............Its not over till Ben is on the cover of time on a bull dozer mowing down homes.Its possible to even hit the D word, lord i hope not.I have never seen such a toxic combo out there in 25 plus years and thats not something to play with on the long side.Bull rally in a bear mkt is over S and P should have got past 1388 and thats the top, the chair woman of FDIC says " ITS A TRIAN WRECK " ]Investors should become traders and profit fron mkt trends beats reading all those 10 qs and k s and confrence calls swap that time for learning charts.When you trade and go to cash nightly [ you are in control ] when you go over night you gave up [ all ] control to mr mkt...........Based on youre posts and my very neg outlook why dont you go long small SDS and hold it for a trend trade hope fully at 1388 ish.The whole dry bulk sector was overbought and the mkt as well thats a high probability short trade............ocnf corrected 9.75 % that was the oppertunity...........its way to risky to hold anything but if one must they should do intra sector swaps ie [ sell rich and buy cheap or at least fair value ] wont save the day but it will sure help in [ ANY ] mkt.You did quite well to have sold 75 % of youre postion.......i would be having a drink not lamenting. O sure its good to be hard on youre self to learn the lesson, buts its even better to move on with the attitude that one is going to get it BACK and more [ carefully mind you ]Assumming we are going where i think or [ worse ] mkt wont like it when jobs are neg 150 per month every month......not mention everything esle. All BRICS are in a tighting cycle.........inflation is way out of the bag.I dont have the time or intrest to post it all, but in summation. All longs of any stock watch youre #$%$

    • DRYS is definitely volatile, no doubt. We don't know where this market is headed right now, I'm going to wait and see, maybe I'll get a lower entry.

      This reminds me of May 2006, the action in the markets hasn't been great for over 2 weeks other than commodity plays. Now there is selling in that space too, it started with the bulkers, now it has moved into the miners and oils. RIO has backed off, BHP is volatile, the XLE retreated as well.

      It's a cooling off period, if they really over do it on the selling, that will be the time to buy. There are so many ways to play the commodity boom, shipping is just one angle.

      EXM could trade down to $40, we just don't know. It shouldn't but it could. I never thought it would be under $48 this week but it is. The way to play it if it gets over done and the BDI is still at or near highs is to buy calls a few months out.

      I think the markets are going lower to sideways until after the July 4th holiday. That will kick off earnings season and most likely the next run in the shippers. If you buy August calls in July, you could make a fortune when the shippers report earnings again.

      I'll wait for the trade, no need to ride out a market that has nothing to drive it higher. Let the correction happen and then come back to play.

    • Of course it could gap up but for now the trend is obviously lower, not just for EXM but the entire market. It will take more than a one day bounce to convince me that all is back to normal. The VIX is rising, that is a very bad indicator. We shed 65 points on the S&P from the monday high this week, that scares me. We definitely have more downside. If the S&P falls below 1350, we are in big trouble.

      I want to see where this market goes for the next 4-6 weeks first. I want the Fed out of the way, I want to see improving economic conditions and I want to see oil go lower. The Fed isn't going to cut rates again so they can't do much except make predictions. Inflation is a real problem now, if oil doesn't cool down soon, all bets on an economic recovery are off and it could spread to Europe and Asia.

      Stocks go up when their is hope of sustained future prosperity. We are in a bear market and an election year. Foreign investing doesn't work well any more because hedge funds are trading every market to death. Latin America has been the rock, Asia gets all the focus and suffers along with the US.

      Oil prices are really the key, they just need to stop going up, that would already be a positive. The fear of an oil induced global recession makes owning stocks very risky.

      If they beat this market up real good again, I'll just buy the leveraged ETF's like QLD. It ran from the lows $60's to over $90 on this run, not too shabby. It was $122 at the high last October, early November. It's a much safer trade than buying one name. I don't need the NASDAQ to double for QLD to double, I need roughly 500 points in the NASDAQ, that's all.

      If you can buy it in the low 70's or high 60's again, I think you just hold it long term with a 5% trailing stop. If the market rolls over, you get stopped out. You own an index, very little brain work involved, you are only concerned with the direction of the index. It's frustrating when the market is up and your stock is down 5% or more. If you are negative, you buy QID or SDS with trailing stops.

      These are just easy trades, you just watch the index and trade it on technicals. Most traders use SPY or QQQQ for their trades for the same reason. If you want leverage, buy SSO or QLD, no margin needed. You can buy half as much of QLD and get the same effect as owning QQQQ. Less money involved.

      I'm in wait and see mode, if we are in a down trend, then so be it. The hole in the gut feeling could get worse Tuesday. I had every chance to pull the plug all week, I made a mistake but I stopped it cold today. A simple stop order would have saved me from myself. I strayed from my plan and it cost me. When you have gains, you take or protect your profit, period. After this week, I wouldn't be able to sleep if I had my money in play. Holiday weekends have not been kind to the market this year.

      When I see moves down like I saw this week, I know it's not over.

    • I think that most of those 100 share trades are stops being taken out. When they are gone the weak hands will have been shaken out. This is a great stock but then again I'm not much of a short term trader. Long oil and shipping. Nothing has changed.

    • I have a similar experience too...
      When DOW shed 450 points in two days (last Wednesday) I knew that bear is coming back, and there will be another broad-market sell off.

      Yet I did nothing in Thu & Fri, I guess now I have to pay for my stupidity...

      • 1 Reply to alamakjan
      • You would think we would all know better by now after what this year has been like. Greed is our enemy.

        How long did it take for the Dow to gain 500 points? Weeks, and we watched it evaporate in one week.

        You have to have a plan. If you have a gain you either sell or put a tight stop under it. If you get stopped out, walk way and do not buy the stock back. Move on or wait for a pull back.

        I knew this last Friday, that's why I sold 75%. The weekend gave me a sense of success and I made a fatal mistake, I didn't sell the rest on Monday. Take your profits, that's the name of the game.

        After i get done bashing my head against the wall for a few days, I might actually do it next time.

    • Testing

    • Well, I appreciate an honest assessment.

      I bought at 44. Again at 48, 52, 60, and at 56 on the way back down.

      I still believe fundamentals will win in the final analysis, so I'm holding all my positions. I love the PE. I can write covered calls inside my IRA, and some of those numbers are looking attractive. I wrote my first covered call ever earlier today with KO.

      I'm not a trader at heart; I'm an investor. I hope to hear from you again on down the road.


      • 2 Replies to northernsprinter
      • Covered calls are a great way to make money. Usually I write then ITM when I have gains. After seeing another brutal sell off I just decided to quit this week. Had I written the $55 calls earlier in the week, I wouldn't feel so bad.

        I simply made the mistake to not cash in my gains, the stock was up 100%, I have no clue what came over me. I had sold 75% last Friday, started buying it back on Wednesday. I hoped it would bounce yesterday, I was dead wrong.

        They attacked this sector along with the indexes but the dry shippers were by far the most shorted stocks this week. Look what they did to SINO today. They ran it up and then they took it apart. EXM lost $9/share this week from last Friday, more from the Monday high. 20% off the high and I don't think it's over. Between now and the end of June, this market is tainted.

        The set up will be to buy before earnings season at a market bottom. I'm waiting for GOOG to get knocked down so I can play the calls for earnings in July. EXM calls paid off big ahead of earnings, I'd rather wait for that trade again.

        I'll trade in and out of ETF's, maybe some DRYS over the next few weeks but I am not going to hold positions for weeks. The market is simply too dangerous, volatility is back, the news is all bad and oil is getting down right scary.

        I'm back to where I was in March, fresh out of ideas and confidence. Rather than try to be a hero or to short the market, I'll step aside. The time to short was Monday, I missed the easy part of that trade already. What kills me is that I wanted to sell my EXM and buy QID on Monday because it was right back to where it was in December at $37.

        Now I have no confidence to go long or short, my brain is fried, I'm worn out and I'm pissed at myself:-).

      • Ha! I needed a laff after this week!

        First, it was the few word response to your long diatribe. That alone made me smile.

        You claim to not be a trader, but you bought this stock 5 times in about the last 2 weeks! That makes you a trader. Then you sold at a loss, and you know what kind of trader that makes you.

        Keep in mind that this group gets a lot of attention, but is really a thinly capitalized group (relative to the total cap of other stock groups) that has as their only assets, a big bunch of ships, and the contracts to rent them. Any real investor wouldn't touch this group. Just being here makes you a trader.

        If you want to be in this group, or solar, or fertilizers, learn something about trading, which simply means (to me) that you must be very aware of the technicals around the money flows. EXM was overbought, it is not yet oversold.

        Fundamentals may establish a very long term value, but these sell offs can last long enough for the long term value to come into question.

        I believe in the current trend. I do not believe in the current perception of their long term valuation.


    • Big, big mistake, IMO

      • 1 Reply to craiger914
      • For $8 commission, I can come back and play any time. Since I had a gain last week and a loss this week, I'll wait the 31 days at least. I can always trade DRYS, TBSI or GNK instead if I want. I prefer to trade the leveraged ETF's, that's really my thing. If they succeed in driving this market back to the lows, I'll buy QLD or USD. For today I'm fresh out of ideas and confidence in this market. A one day bounce won't convince me it's ok to jump in. Until oil goes lower or we get better economic news, I'll day trade once in a while. My only winner today is WNR and I sold it too. This week wiped out my gains from last week, so it was all for nothing but entirely my fault, I didn't do what I said I would do last weekend. I swallowed the bait and got caught.

        I'm taking a break, I'm frustrated, feeling stupid for not selling on Monday and for riding it down all week. I'm going out to dinner with my family friends and I fully intend to get drunk.