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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • workingretiree65 workingretiree65 Jul 8, 2010 2:58 AM Flag

    I think you all are huge pessimists and are missing several market factors …

    1) The general market sway back up to DOW 10300 to 10500.
    2) EXM is approaching an earnings report which will cause a general upward swing from the current annual bottomed-out rates.
    3) Emotional impact on China’s proposed Steel Rebate Deal will fade and China will still keep chugging along as a huge consumer of steel and other raw materials; maybe slower; but still chug-a-lug means raw materials have to move.

    Also, BDI is a function of demand, but demand is touched daily and weekly by emotional reponses to economic factors. Bottom line, China may be a little slower, but it will still keep chugging along and steel products and other bulk materials will not come to a stand still. This slow down but chug along process has been cycling through like this since September 2008 … just look at a chart of all the hills and valleys in that BDI. We are headed for another hill. No one knows how large or small it will be but the pump is primed for a rise in DOW, BDI, and EXM Stock Price.

    I predict that the suppression of BDI rate will loosen in about 7 to 14 days after the emotion clears up; just in time to rise up with the rising DOW and the progress of EXM towards an earnings report. I am obviously long in EXM

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    • Sounds like you don't know the drybulk and waterborne transport market at all. All that and not a single word about fleet growth, scrapping, new orders or a single thing about the supply side. You don't seem to understand, like many who invest in this sector, that there are TWO sides to the equation. You think that demand can outweigh ANY supply thrown at it. Sad. Ten seconds research into the sector is not enough. Sorry about you being long EXM. How long have you had this condition?

      • 2 Replies to audiophulee
      • I'd like to understand the market better.

        It seems to me that very low spot day rates would indicate that many trips are not even covering their expenses.

        Further, it seems to me that this is not good business as it would preserve cash to just leave the ships in port (a port where the fees are minimum) or put it into dry dock.

        But also, if full ships are going one way and then taking whatever they can get for the return trip only partially full then a low BDI would be an indication of a large trade imbalance and isn't this the nature of dry bulk shipping. The ore goes from Brazil to China, there is not an equivalent to fill the boat on the way back - so it sails empty or takes a low rate to haul a partial load. Either way it has to get back to Brazil.

        So, how much of this type of dynamic is in the market?

      • Well sir, I think so far in the last few days I am RIGHT! and I have been in and out of this stock all year. Let's see, 40,000 shares at $.35 gain over the last two days makes $14,000 profit on my $188K investment. Seven percent return in just a few days and this will continue for at least 10 more days. But of course your not in the slot to take advantage of any of this because you are a pessimist.

 
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