SHIPPING industry confidence levels hit their highest point for two years in the three months to February, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from Moore Stephens.The accountancy firm noted improved expectation of freight rate increases over the next 12 months
I wonder why you left out this comment from that article?....
"Some foresaw a continuation of difficult market conditions, such as the respondent who noted, “Last year was very difficult, and 2013 is likely to produce similarly meagre yields, so once again it will be all about trying to survive rather than moving forward.” In an even more pessimistic vein, another respondent maintained, “The shipping market has been getting worse every year since 2008, and there is unlikely to be any improvement in 2013. There are still crazy shipowners ordering new ships which will hit the water in two years’ time, so the world fleet will keep increasing at a faster rate than will cargo volumes.” Elsewhere it was noted, “Be careful when selecting your counter-parties, and be happy if you are able to cover your expenses in today’s market.”
Face the facts. There are only 1400 ships on the 7 year order book. Some will never materialize into orders. 900 left this year of which a couple hundred will move to next year. It takes a could of years to build a ship and capacity is going away monthly as many smaller ship yards are shutting down.. 2014 is already baked. It will be a good recovery year. Demand has never been poor and is picking up. Most shippers can not order even if they wanted to due to debt covenants and limited financing. By the time the BDI starts a real recover about a year from now 2015 will be baked and it will be too late to order any ships for delivery then. What happens if the Europe recession start a recovery in 2014 or 2015? There have been 8 shipping cycles since 1955 and the fools that thought that shipping was dead forever lost out in each one.