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Subsea 7 SA Message Board

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  • sofiperi8 sofiperi8 Jun 28, 2011 4:25 PM Flag

    i predict two scenarios tomorrow

    At least in Athens they think it will pass, Athens Stock Exchange Index was up. I believe they are right. 154 votes will be enough...

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    • Sofi, Do you live in Athens? no special reason for asking- just would be nice to know thoughts of someone on front line ( so to speak)

      IF so , I know these measures must impact you or some friends- Hope all can manage- I do not think it is fair for Greece treasury yields to be at 30% and i do not see it as sustainable.

      If i was over there- i WOULD VOTE THE DEFAULT ROUTE and return to the drachma

      • 2 Replies to ustaknow
      • I spent a few months in Greece every year.
        The austerity measures have a huge impact to people, of course, but this is not the main reason they protest. The impunity of some corrupted politicians and the conviction that the country will default at the end because the measures are not the appropriate make people very dissapointed and angry.
        I think they accept their own responsibility for the current situation though, as they live in a democratic state and they have elected all the previous governments.

      • Careful there, ust.

        I agree that 30% seems unsustainable, but think about this. THEY AREN'T PAYING THAT!!!!

        Greek bonds have crashed so that if you were to buy one today, the yield would be 30%, they have crashed because of fear of default.

        The govt is not paying that, what they are paying is the coupon rate on the bonds, and they will be paying the rate being proposed by the ECB on the bailout pkg, I forget what it is, something like 9 or 11%.

        The Greek govt is not paying more than 9 or 11% on any of their borrowings.

        More important, if they elect to default, there will be NO MONEY, so no one would get paid. If they tried to move to the drachma, by the time they had money printed, it would be worthless, Greece would be the second coming of the hyper inflation from the German years. All that negative stuff, like riots, and I mean every greek citizen rioting, capital flight (and I mean every penny leaving the country), etc, etc.

        Greece has no choice right now but to take the medicine for their actions, then work their way back to their own path. With more fiscal responsibility.

        After all, even if they default, and go to the drachma, they are spending way too much every day, whatever currency they use!!!

        Greece is a small picture of what is coming here...

 
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