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Weyerhaeuser Co. Message Board

  • kalokkutta kalokkutta Oct 12, 2010 11:32 AM Flag


    What is the value of WYs much oil/gas/minerals are underneath their land........

    Going forward what is the dividend one can expect.

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    • You keep selling and I'll keep buying. Wood products lost only $3 million last quarter. The rest of WY earned $171 million last quarter. Your logic is about the same as having four rental properties, three generated positive cash from tenants, one had repairs and had a paltry loss. Overall you still did well but you only focus on the one that lost money.

      Wood products has the ability to earn $500 million-$1 billion depending on how high lumber prices go. I'll settle for losing a few million for a few quarters because in the end, the current level of housing starts is unsustainable. You are looking in the rear view mirror. I'm looking forward.

      So, again. Sell WY, sell it short. I'm buying it from you and people like you. I'm buying a slightly profitable company for half of liquidation value and waiting, watching trees grow.

    • "only $3 million for the entire Q2." Are you kidding me? Like that's good? Losing a million a month? How long do you think WY can cover that up with creative accounting? Wood Products does NOT have a positive cash flow. Not in this market. And the market won't be any better for maybe 3-5 more years.

      Trees can grow to the stratosphere and that don't mean anything. What matters is what the logs will bring when you sell them or what they will bring when you convert them to wood products. If you ever tried to hock your Rolex, you will know that what something may be worth and what it will bring when you gotta sell it is entirely different.

      WY wood products is bleeding red ink right now and it won't change until demand improves in the form of housing starts and sales management improves.

      Add to that, WY will have to re-fit all their NW sawmills for millions in short term expense (due to blind strategic planning) to accomodate recent building code changes in their prime California market that will require dry lumber in 2011.

      Share value has a ways to go before it peaks bottom. This coming winter is gonna be brutal on WY wood products income.

    • It was said a while back that assets are $5-6 Billion, depending on fluctuations in timber and real estate values. It's timberland in the NW, Canada, Southeast and S.America. If there were any minerals or oil, they'd already be after it and it would be well hyped.

      Dividends are going to be in pennies per share (1-5 cents)at most--and that coming with some major book cooking. WY is real heavy with incompetent management especially at the mid-levels. As long as they have that, they will continue to lose millions every quarter just as they have been for about 2 years.

      Another issue that I heard just came up is that their major market area in CA has changed the building codes to require dry lumber effective Jan 1st. This means that for WY to compete in their prime market area and to hold onto their Home Depot contract in CA, they will have to refit and re-optimize all their sawmills which now only produce green lumber. That will cost WY millions short term. Their over-paid strategic planners and sales managers really fumbled the ball and had their heads up their behinds on this one by never seeing this thing coming and doing nothing--on something that has been in the works and had been common knowledge in the market for a couple years.

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