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Weyerhaeuser Co. Message Board

  • low_mac low_mac Oct 17, 2013 8:04 AM Flag

    Peak Lumber by 2016**

    A persistent mountain pine beetle epidemic plus the housing crisis equals desperate times for Canadian forestry companies; many survivors are investing what's left into timberland located in the U.S. South.

    In or around 2016, lumber supplies coming from Canada are expected to peak. Unless the situation deteriorates further, Canada's overall supply is expected to decrease by 9%, or 400,000 homes worth of wood products.
    Thus far, the mountain pine beetle epidemic has spread across 43 million acres, killing 710 million cubic meters of timber since the current infestation began.

    The allowable annual cut (AAC) over the same time period was 71 to 78 million cubic meters ; so they've already lost about a decades worth of trees.

    It's happening for three key reasons
    1) Governmental lands are not professionally managed

    2) Old growth, mature trees (+80 years) are more susceptible to disease and harmful insects

    3) Less than harsh winters have not slowed the pine beetles progress

    Canada's bad news is good news if you own timberland in the US
    Timber is a highly fragmented business; countless families own more than 25 acres.

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