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Morgan Stanley Message Board

  • surendarts surendarts Oct 10, 2008 12:38 AM Flag

    Contrarian Indicator

    Perma bull - Dick Bove throws in the towel. Expect capitulation tomorrow. Stock price low 9.98 and then it shoots up to 18 and then if price is supported it would be 25 within a week. MS has to survive this weekend and that they will!!

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    • There's a LOT of shorts.. I mean ALOT - just look at the options. The open volume on puts are tremendous.

      The selling pressure alone is enough to crush most stocks. If the market does what it usually ends up doing so far, which is to screw the most people over - then long is an against the grain bet.

      I'm still holding MS since $19, but my confidence is waivering

    • Yes, it will shoot up like FRE, FNM and AIG.

    • Just wanted to add - Book value is 31 and change. 0.8 times book would be around 25-26 which is the fair value of MS. It seems there are too much pressures on this stock (not company) for tomorrow - market sentiment, MUFJ capital infusement and 400B default auction of LEH debt.

      Underlying strengths/positives - Feds have realised that by letting LEH go under, they have created another credit mistrust situation and the Fed will act to rectify it this time around. Also, I see a major Fed/govt intervention that would pull us out of this!!

      Most of the downhill action on the roller-coaster has been riden out, wait for the move back up to sanity!!

35.985-0.325(-0.90%)2:37 PMEDT