I really appreciate your insight. I agree the US is arguable in a worse financial position. Really my trade is based on the interconnected banking system. If there is a hint of insolvency (and to your point the media sure seems to be looking for one) the market will reacted/ overeact to the downside in dramatic fashion warrented or not. Part of me hopes this doesn't happen but I can't seem to convince myself there is a legitimate solution to this without killing any growth that may be occuring. Thanks again for you opinion.
Heres a prediction for you!
DOW 12k by end of year and you will be just as much of a loser then as you are now.
Because you will have neither shorted nor gone long, just wasted your time trolling the boards.
LOL!! second part is already true! I'm 50% already!!!
"Try making a prediction genius"
Don't be jealous! just cause you cant trade LOL!
Ohh I've had many losses thru the years. Hell march 09 was a bloodbath when I was still short and had to cover. But they were more than offset by the gains from going long for the rest of that year.
let me help you out a little:
There's a big difference between realized vs unrealized
and WHEN unrealized becomes realized.
What matters is what my P&L looks like at end of year.
But I guess if you were actually trading and weren't just a board troll you'd already have realized this............
Perhaps a different perspective. I am European. Born over there. European parents, American upbringing
still fluent in several languages, Still do a lot of business over there. Germany, France, and Italy.
Europeans typically don't "do change" very often the same way America does every four to eight years. Now don't get me wrong, I am NOT an American basher. its a great country just different than Europe. and if it's one thing the Europeans are it is that they ARE very stubborn. admittedly this is a double edged sword.
One needs to look back on european history and I'm not talking about just the last 50 years either to get an insight on the true european psyche.
These people will fight tooth and nail for an ideology, Things put in place are typically measured in 100 year increments. Hence things move much slower over there. Now when we talk about the euro being in trouble in the American media I can tell you everyone in Europe that I've talked to from bankers to businessmen haven't even considered disbandment a possibility. All this talk about the Germans leaving the euro is comical. These people fought to the last man in Berlin during WW-2. The attrition and suffering these countries endured during WW-1 and WW-2 was much more painful than anything this current recession will bring in the way of cuts. Americans have little perspective on this kind of pain. So when we say that these countries will disband a currency that has taken them years to put in place before they will suffer more pain I think we really need to put some historical perspective on this. The American media has a way of twisting things, this is one of the reasons I pay no attention to them at all. The european local nightly news is very different than the US nightly newscast. If you've never been to europe you should go, it's an eye opening contrast.
I get on the phone and talk to people I know in different industries over there to try to gauge what is really happening best I can. It doesn't mean I'm right, but over the years I've found it to be the best gauge of reality for me
As I write this export's in Europe have jumped to the highest level in years and tourism has shot through the roof. I was trying to get rooms in Lake Cuomo, Rome, and Milan a little while back and everything was booked solid. I have a good friend who runs a German bank, while he admits things have to change (they have to change here too ) these adjustment are completely within the realm of possibilities. And they also realize that once the die was cast there was no going back. privately he says going back to the DM isn't even in the cards for them. But of course they won't be happy until some of these countries take their medicine either.
Everyone likes to focus on their retirement issues, but remember these people aren't retiring with the huge salaries OUR state and local government workers are (at least in NY and Cali). the typical european lives a pretty modest low impact lifestyle. small houses, small cars, no walk in closets full of clothes, very conservative vs US. i.e. very sustainable for modest costs
Now here in Cali we have firefighters/Police/ Gov. social workers retiring with 250k a year salaries!!
Then we pay for every welfare child born plus housing.( LOL we have sec 8 families living in houses with pool's) Is that sustainable?
You could be right. the debt is piling on I give you that, (but it is doing so here too) but everything I must go by tells me this is more media hype than anything else. and all the trouble they have is self inflicted and self correctable. I could be wrong. time will tell.
And like you said, they will fight to the death that is for sure. I personally won't bet against someone willing to fight to the death. Especially against people that have been doing this for 2000 years and survived it all.....
It's funny you mention the Euro because as of late that has really been one of things I have been keying off of. I understand you thesis and typically believe in the philosphy "buy when they cry..sell when they yell." However of late there seems to be a lot of balls in the air and if one even looks to be falling the rest will come tumbling down. I really think the Euro is in trouble. The central bank or whomever will fight to the death to keep it alive but it seems an impossible task considering the conflicting interests/egos involved. Couple that with the interdependence of banks and there are real issues looming.