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CBL & Associates Properties Inc. Message Board

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 7, 2009 2:59 PM Flag

    maybe a 7 bagger >>

    if this one went back to even 1/2 of it's old 52 week high, it would be a 7-bagger.

    could happen in 12-18 months...IF THE ECONOMY RECOVERS VIA STIMULI / MONEY SUPPLY

    Back in 2002, I was in 2 stocks that were down by a similar amount...people screaming "BK" / "sky is falling"....and they went up 1000% off their lows....
    18 months....1,000% !!

    never any guarantees...but coming out of such recessions / depressions, you can get moves that seem outrageous, today...There was no one that would have dreamed that OMG / ACF back in 2002, would be seeing 1000% gains in 18 months...people were too busy crying about the losses, at the time.

    ...and I also remember that every weasel / naysayer was coming out of the woodwork, to warn investors NOT TO INVEST in those 2 stocks... HATED AT THE BOTTOM / LOVED AT THE TOP ...YOU KNOW THIS....YOU KNOW HOW IT IS

    ( I think it's training that has helped me - i.e. when I feel like selling, I buy...when the pain is greatest, I's so ingrained now...hahaha...takes time to get 'whacky' perhaps...always the opposite / difficult to think that way, but I think it's the best way )

    ( ONE CAVEAT : I always ask the question: "will they survive"...i.e. even if they are "dogs" and the pain is great...and everyone hates the stock,... that does not mean it's always a great opportunity...BUT IF YOU THINK IT'S A "GOING CONCERN", THEN HIT IT HARD...HIT IT OFTEN...AND SHUT YOUR EARS AND EYES TO THE NAYSAYERS...AND WAIT !! PATIENCE AND COST AVG)

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    • h5n, isn't market low enough to intervene now?

    • yes.... a temporary (perhaps 1 yr) cessation / modification of the mark-market rule would perhaps help the bank's 'ratios'... I hear that the banks have twice the cash...but hold back, for the need to cover writedowns, on paper...

      I like conservative accounting, but in this instance, I'll bend...

      (and wonder if the uptick rule could help...but frankly, I'd like to eliminate shorting altogether - just makes investing into a 'casino'...I'd rather see people buy the stock if they liked it, and if they didn't like the stock, then sell what they own - but not be able to borrow and dump it...but I'd not like to get into a discussion about 'adding liquidity', in here) Well, hope we have a better week / month ...

      >>> getting a feeling that if this market drop continues, OBAMA will be pushed to make some market changes, perhaps? or the SEC?

    • GREAT HONEST POST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • 1 Reply to aaronfriedman44
      • my MENDOZA LINE for CBL was calculated at 1.98 (hit last Friday), and around 1.48 for DDR (that rule was based on God's plan for me - i.e. to make me suffer 40% downside before heading North...My God is a vengeful God...a Protestant God / "no pain,no gain")
        HOW'S YOURS?) >>

        Well, WYN / CBL looking decent today...and still waiting to see what GGP comes up with (have very little in that one, but it's the most fun to watch...on the edge of disaster...if it survives, well, 35 cents was a pretty low buy in to work off of).


    • Good post, h5n1eric!

      As for the magnitude of the increase, I think it depends on the investor's time horizon and if dividends are reinvested. With the reinvestment of dividends and a patient investor, I think this stock will be more than a 7-bagger.

      I found an old stock purchase slip from 1982 for 20 shares of Ford. I paid $400+. As I recall I sold it shortly thereafter when it eliminated the dividend.

      I went back and recalculated how well I would have done if I had held it. The stock rose about 25X at its peak in 1999. But with dividends reinvested (it reinstated it a year or so later) it was more than 50 times!! I had timed my purchase correctly, I just hadn't mastered patience yet.

      That was over a 17 year period, and of course, Ford stock has been a disaster the past 10 years. So I don't think you can ever buy-and-hold "forever." But I think CBL will be good for more than a decade -- even if we trade lower first. But in the absence of a international crisis, I can't see anyone who is short holding this stock by the close on Tuesday.

    • Maybe and maybe not. Paying dividends in stock is poor and the stock deserves to be punished and treated as if it was paying 1/10 of the dividend because that is what it is paying.

      PEI on the other hand (where this exact same post is posted) is paying cash and over time will be rewarded for doing so.

13.07-0.37(-2.75%)Nov 30 4:04 PMEST