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Fifth Street Finance Corp. Message Board

  • supersuper338 supersuper338 Feb 22, 2012 10:59 AM Flag

    Time to exit?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/u-s-stock-futures-are-little-changed-before-report-on-existing-home-sales.html

    Quoted from the article:

    "Five shares declined for every four that rose on U.S. exchanges at 10:30 a.m. New York time. The S&P 500 slid 0.1 percent to 1,360.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 8.86 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,956.83 after the 30-stock gauge rose above 13,000 (INDU) yesterday for the first time since 2008."

    "“You can ride this, but you’ve got to be very careful and sit near the exit,” David Darst, the New York-based chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, said in a telephone interview. His firm has $1.6 trillion in client assets. “Most of the economies are slowing. Earnings will be slowing. We don’t think that the politicians are doing the right thing. Austerity means bitter or harsh. We think the market is overbought on a short-term basis.”"

    His review was contraditory to some of others who expected to see DOW climbing up to 15,000.

    Who is right?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/u-s-stocks-extend-losses-after-data-on-sales-of-previously-owned-homes.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/treasuries-snap-decline-on-concern-greece-respite-from-crisis-is-temporary.html

    "Fitch Ratings lowered Greece’s credit rating and said a default is highly likely."

    It would be interested to hear from others in this board in how they feel about the market in short term and if they are still bullish or bearish on the market....

    Thanks in advance.

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    • I believe Israel is already planning their attack right now. It does not appear they have a choice in not taking the first strike, just like you said. I just wonder if that happens how it will affect the market, oil price and precious metals. It is really difficult to predict the impact. I had added to both my gold and oil positions today.

    • The Israel thing has been brewing for some time. They were supposed to get the new F-35's which they planned on using for the raid. Obama has jerked them around and I would think Israel will move on this very shortly regardless. I have been following this very closely and we all know Israel is not going to wait to get hammered first.

    • I have heard that equivalent so many times concerning the price of oil but it dose not hold water because efficiency comes into play. Just as you can buy a TV cheaper today than you could 20 years ago. I was reading about the ROI in oil and ethanol. Oil was 1 to 20 or 1 Buck in for 20 out. Ethanol on the other hand was 1 to 1.2. With ethanol use in gasoline you lose 3 to 9% on mileage. You can thank the government for taking your wealth and giving it to the corn farmers via legislation.

    • Will that be Mitt?

    • The only silver I hold is a 1 Ounce Liberty that I keep on my desk for good luck. Gotta rub it every once in awhile for that good luck.

      If worst comes to worst I can always make some Orange Cider and exchange it for goods and services unless I run across a Mormon, then I am screwed.

    • You would love this article:

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/02/22/gasoline-prices-are-not-rising-the-dollar-is-falling/

      and I quoted:

      "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke uses a “core CPI index” that excludes food and energy to guide monetary policy. From Big Ben’s point of view, rising gasoline prices are not a problem. For the rest of us, they are becoming a big problem."

      "Right now, the threat posed by rising gasoline prices is not just to family budgets. An even greater danger is that the government will use escalating oil prices as an excuse to do something stupid.

      After President Nixon abrogated the Bretton Woods monetary arrangement in stages starting in September 1971, both gold prices and oil prices started to rise. The government responded by imposing wage-price controls. This made a bad situation much worse."

      "This time around, the stupid policies being considered to “deal with” rising gasoline prices include additional cuts in payroll taxes and higher taxes on energy producers.

      During the 1970s, the toxic combination of a weak dollar, high tax rates, and onerous regulations introduced a new word into America’s economic vocabulary: stagflation. Reaganomics banished this word to the history books. Now, President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke are teaming up to give stagflation another try. It is not likely that Americans will like it any more this time around than they did 40 years ago."

      I believe when I started college in 74, gas was around 39 cents a gallon (some record said 26.9 cents, some said an average of 59 cents), but I remembered within a year the price has gone up to between 69 cents to 73 cents a gallon. Small cars were sold with a premium when I graduated in 1978. The average price of gas was 0.66 per gallon in 1978, then went up to around 1.43 in 1981. In 1982, interest rate went up to as high as 21%.

      Will history repeat itself, I surely hope not....

      But....

      If who ever we elect (or re-elect) into White House this year does the wrong things....

      Well...

    • Unfortunately, with our debts and energy cost continue to rise, the lack of a national fiscal and energy policy and a lack of true national leadership, our continued dependence on oil and our continued failures in creating high paying jobs, it is just when this will happen...

      May be twenty years, may be fifty or sooner....

      The only way to pay back our debts is demonetization....

      and it will be ugly...

    • Well, I hope it doesn't come to that!

    • Take a look at NRF.

      It just announced the offering price of its new 15M shares at 5.55, 4% disocunt from its yesterday's closing price of 5.78. Its NAV is 8.97 with almost a 10% yiled. Its ex-div date is tomorrow with a 0.135 dividend. Its low today was 5.36 and currently traded at around 5.43. Bought some at 5.43.

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