I know, I am the resident chicken BEAR. My timing was always early, kind of sucks. But my instinct kept warning me: GET OUT, GET OUT.
I see OIL continued to tank, yet precious metals continued to rise sharply. To me, that is almost a sign saying the all the SMART MONEY believe Bond Tapering will be announced at the next FOMC meeting:
Sept. 16, 17.
Of course, Wayne was correct in pointing out that you have to have a long term investment plan and should ignore all these noises. In that regard, he was 100% correct, yet the FED had already repeatedly warned everybody, barring any catastrophic economic disaster, they will start bond tapering. Many of the largest institutions had already retreated 100% from the stock market, the trading volumes had been dropping, the good news from good earnings had mostly settled down. Can the stock market rally continues into the rest of this year? Possibly, but very unlikely.
Therefore, this morning I had spent almost two hours transferring about 80-85% of the money in anything to do with stocks or bonds in all my wife's and my 403b plans to money market. Again, my timing can be early and I can be wrong and miss some of the rally, but one of my account went up 10% since 6/30/13, to me it is time to take profit.
I also took a long and hard look at all my IRA accounts, sold off some lackluster stocks to raise cash, bought some SRS ((-2x) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real EstateSM Index) and even bought some AUY. Again, my timing sucks. May end up buying HIGH and sell low. LOL
I am trying to make all my portfolio as crash proof as possible. May try to buy more DXD and some QID if the prices are right this week.
Many believe if we will have a mild 5% correction, then the market rally will resume. I do not believe we would get away so easy. I believe if there is a correction, it will be at least a 10%. Of course, I can be wrong.
We shall see. Thoughts on why precious metal rose so much? J
After a few adjustments today, I'm at about 42% cash and will only build more cash as the week progresses, unless I buy some SPXS or similar short ETF as we go forward.
J-----not much harm in going to much cash. A very solid year is already locked in, no need to "give back" to the market reaching for a few last percentage points. I'm close to your opinion on things, maybe not quite so bearish, but certainly cautious.
Gotta run off to work now.....semi retired working about 15 hours a week.