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Fifth Street Finance Corp. Message Board

  • keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 14, 2013 10:03 AM Flag

    I'VE TURNED EXTREMELY BEARISH....

    Added some TZA @ 20.07. It shorts the smallest 2000 of the Russell 3000 (X 3). Already holding some SPXU which shorts the S&P 500 X 3....

    Sold 3 stocks this morning including the BDC....HRZN. Am probably now net short with those sales and the short ETFs combined.

    I think this OBABCARE thiing is ready to blow up into a huge fiasco. It has turned into a "no way out" type of thing. The genie is out of the bottle with the cancelled policies. Now those people have to scramble to get coverage, and at what cost. The older people who sign up are supposed to be subsidized by the younger enrollees, but the young aren't signing up. Poor copays and out of pocket amounts with the lower level plans.

    Add to all this the FED easing. Has created a bubble mentality in the stock market. This will deflate like a souffle at some point. QE is covering up for bad govt business policies, which are stifling growth.

    Just my feeling, and I've backed it up with my retirement money.

    Kel

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    • You're living very dangerously. The market is due (over-due, perhaps) for a correction, but the trend is decidedly UP. I think there's a high likelihood of a 5 to 8% pullback in the next several months, possibly in late December. It all depends on what the politicians in D.C. do at the end of December on the budget situation. Last year I loaded up on VTI on December 30 and 31, and I'm now up 29.22%. We could very well see a repeat of the same thing again this year. I expect 2014 to be a lot more volatile than 2013, but I think the first half of the year, at least, will be generally up. I'm not saying the economy is doing great, but with interest rates near 0% and likely to stay there, stocks are the only game in town.

    • Suggest rethinking your shorts, SPXU as an example is down 8.5% in the last 10 DAYS.

    • Not appropriate, we are still in a bull market that is making new highs. NEVER short a bull market. When we go into a recession is when you will see a bear market and there will be months to short it. When will that be, like you said, at some point but not now. Most downside risk right now is 5%, and the upside is unlimited. I personally thought the market was rolling over a couple of weeks ago so I went to cash, glad I did not go short. Now I just pick apples off the tree short term........

    • Hi, Kel: Be careful when playing with short ETFs especially those 3x bears. I once bought TZA and lost 70k on it and took almost a year to make back my losses. The problem with all these short ETFs is that you must have perfect timings and must get ride of them in 3-5 trading days no matter what because keeping any of them in the long term, their values will diminish to zero. But I think you know what you are doing and can only wish you luck. J

      • 3 Replies to thewisejman
      • Jman..........Does this include USLV in your opinion.....I unfortunately have held on way too long and I'm down 60% hoping silver is going to make a strong comeback. Still holding and still hoping. Thoughts ?

      • J.....I'm very careful these days with my portfolio mixture. TZA is about 4% of my IRA account and SPXU is about 7%. Plus 70% is in cash right now. My dividend paying longs are ARCP (property REIT), FEI (CEF that holds MLPs), GAIN (a BDC).

        Kel

      • There is no FREE lunch in life. Attempting to add half a million previously uninsured and some high-risked patients to the insured pools, somebody have to pay for it if the government won't. The sad thing is with Obamacare only the poor and the most unhealthy ones will benefit, the healthy and the self-employed with decent incomes will be hard hit. In many states such as poor states like Arkansas and Mississippi, the Obamacare insurance premiums are still too high for many low income families unless they can a lot of subsidies which will be paid by all of us. Soon, our healthcare system will be turning into that of Canada, care for the young and the old & sick be darned. Sad but true. My parents both died because of the Canadian healthcare system. They will probably be still living today if they reside in the USA and have medicare.

 
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