Q: How high would PPS be if QTWW got the Post Office?
Nov 8, 2010, you replied:
"entirely dependent on the success or otherwise of the Karma."
I say that is entirely without relevance. Q-Drive is not quiet-drive, is not Q-Force. The performance requirements of a postal van is nothing like Q-Force nor Q-Drive. Certainly a 0-60 mph at 6 seconds is nothing the current van can achieve nor does it need to be at that performance level.
The Grumman LLV entered service in 1987. The USPS purchased over 100,000 of these vehicles, of which the last was purchased in 1994. The LLV's average EPA fuel economy is 17 mpg (16 city/18 highway).
Almost as bad as using a late 60's big block muscle car to deliver mail.
The Fisker Karma and Karma S Q-Drive have no meaningful correlation to the one year test program the U. S. Post office intiated in Feb of 2010 other than Quantum is one of the companies in the running to supply the new vans with quiet-drive.
Should QTWW win the Post Office contract and because the U. S. Army has 7 years of working with QTWW, I'd say QTWW has a fair shot of winning the high volume contract. How high would the stock go is anyone's guess and that would be dependent on how long it takes for other pending deals, whether thru Schneider, Asola or as Ocean Tomo already accepts, the long term value to Quantum's patent portfolio. How high? How long will one wait before selling? You decide.
You have to wait until the field test is complete.
From February, 2010
Quantum was competitively selected, along with 4 other companies, for participation in a 1 year demonstration and validation program to be conducted by the USPS in Washington DC. A successful demonstration in the nation's capital could pave the way to broad adoption of battery electric vehicles in the USPS fleet. Electrification of the 178,000-strong LLV segment of the postal delivery fleet, the largest civilian fleet in the country, will help to reduce emissions across the country and reduce dependence on foreign petroleum while supporting the continued development of the US EV industry. Besides the environmental benefits and fuel savings, electric postal vehicles could also serve as valuable energy storage devices for the grid, under Smart Grid technologies.
Re "If indeed that project gets off the ground"
As you say, that is still a moot point. IMO, entirely dependent on the success or otherwise of the Karma. If the latter bombs, it puts the whole future of Fisker into the melting pot - where that would leave the status of the government loan ( and one assumes this is critically linked to the Nina project) is anyone's guess.
Pretty much agree with all that - Except there is big difference between Fisker and Quantum in their business strategy. Fisker, from the very moment he started was Intending to outsource as part of the overall concept. It was a planned, thought out, joined up proceedure. Whether it succeeds or not is still a moot point.
On the other hand, Quantum outsourced because events advanced beyond their ability to cope.
The big difference between Henrik Fisker and Alan Niedswicki is that the former is using outsourcing as part of a long term corporate strategy, whereas Niedswicki is using it as a desperate short term necessity.
Thing that niggles is that Quantum had a significant stake in Fisker, and seats on the board, whilst also being the supplier of a critical component of the Karma concept. Also a significant interest in the solar aspects of the design.
Now, Quantum has, or is about to lose, its presence on the Fisker board and only retains a nominal stake in the company that was once supposed to be the road to riches.
As such, it has lost any leverage that it might have had to be involved in the Nina project - which is the real cash cow for Fisker, and from which Quantum might have been expected to pick up a very lucrative percentage.
Your mention and underlining the importance of 'Outsourcing' emphasises the basic weakness of Quantum. It cannot produce its product, however good the product, without paying other people to do it for them - and there goes most of the revenue and profit.
The really smart people who figure they have a winner generally sink available funds into a production facility before, rather than after, they start paying themselves salaries commensurate with established corporative giants. Establish the product first; Get very rich afterwards.
Big 'if'. However, IF Quantum got a slice of the action, it would obviously boost share price. How much would depend on the degree of involvement. How long is a piece of string?
Just don't expect mail to be delivered on time.