<<How does SPF plan to meet its stated objectives when orders are down 70% in FL and 80% in AZ and based on comments in the CC one can possibly infer that the trend continued into January?>>
AZ and FL are smaller potatoes relative to CA. But orders will improve there too as cancellations fall. Remember, the order decline is not as severe when looking at GROSS orders--which are down moderately, but appear to be improving. On finished specs, orders typically turn into closings within the quarter--so looking at quarter end orders don't always tell the whole story. CA orders are much improved--that's the more important thing.
<<Further, with orders running at that level, how can SPF reasonably expect to make a profit with current land basis, overhead and debt structure?>>
Profit matters less than turning inventory to cash and paying down debt. Having said that, some modest level of profit is likely in 2007--and certainly in 2008. This is the cyclical trough--normalized earnings are significantly higher.
Frankly, I'm just tired of the number of constant repetitive posts from alstry. Shorts will lose a lot of money here as the company delevers and the market improves. It's way too late in the game to be short--especially at book value. SPF is likely a takeover candidate by 2008 when industry M&A picks up (as it always does when the market stabilizes).
This may be my last post here for a while. Take care all.