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Iridium Communications Inc. Message Board

  • pcstel pcstel Oct 11, 2012 12:51 PM Flag

    More Debt, More Dillution

    oldsatguy says:

    "Not to trash GSAT, but when will they REALLY have a next generation network? They still have at least 6 more satellites to launch and a whole ground system to upgrade (and new end devices to make) - so that's at least 3 more years, and that assumes they can raise $300M or more. And what will they have then - 256kb? NEXT will be available at that time (or soon thereafter) with 1Mb!"

    We'll you need to get your facts straight, because it sounds like "trash talk" to me.

    Globalstar second generation satellite network will be complete and lunched upon a successful fourth launch now scheduled for Q1 2013, penciled in for the first week in Feb. NEXT is scheduled to launch their final satellites in 2017. GSAT has 42MM to pay on a $125MM contract to complete the manufacturing and installation of the third generation RAN which will support 1Mbs foward/ 256kbs reverse, this includes Gateway updates in the 9 O&O Gateways, and the first 100,000 SOC's silicon for user terminals. Expenses Iridium hasn't even brought forward YET. GSAT still owes about 20MM for the core network to Ericsson. So they need about 80MM to complete the second generation RAN and Core Network. The independent Gateway owners are responsible for updating their respective Gateways.

    Never let facts get in your way.

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    • Does GSAT have earnings? When does their business plan forecast a profit? FYI, you could have put your money in an old Telco a few years ago and get over a 10% yield today from that investment. You could probably do that now with crusty wireless Telcos and get 10% per year in about 5 years. This is simply because their track record is to keep increasing dividends. GSAT reminds me of a burn barrel, where you would through your old documents before there were shredding machines. Sorry, but it is always easier to criticize then create, and in this case it's just too easy.

    • GSAT is a waste of time and money. More like someone's afterthought or science project. Sorry, but that is how I feel and would not put a dime of my own money in this "endeavor".

      • 1 Reply to
      • PCTEL is emotionally involved with his GSAT which has been going down the toilet.Think he may have had a couple million shares I was once told at nearer a buck..Now it's less than half that...He feels better trying to bring down others to make his poor decision more of an industry issue..Makes him feel better..Ignore PCTEL..definitely has a high and mighty complex about himself..

    • old sat guy says us folks from the GSAT board don't read this board

      why wouldn't we follow postings of all the competitors of the mss sector???

      i want to hear what you people have to say so i regularly follow this board

      what i find astonishing in old sat guy's posts is his continuing assumption that thales will deliver app 3 times as many sats to IRDM under the terms of contract when they've yet miserably failed to deliver a far lesser quantity to GSAT (to this day) though being more than 2 years overdue

      satellites don't come off no assembly lines no matter how many you order

      how does that forebode well for IRDM??

      yet old sat guy throws it in our face as though it isn't a problem IRDM themself hasn't bought into

      NEXT is dependent on thales which is the same broken reed that is the sole responsible party who is the basis for old sat guy's criticisms of GSAT's failure to have their long overdue 2nd generation constellation fully up and operational

      a leopard don't change its spots

      thales won't deliver and they'll be looking to use any and all loopholes by any unconscionable means to suck every last cent out of IRDM


      the odds of IRDM stock doubling in value is unrealistic except in a very long term (more likely they'll lose half)

      GSAT's odds are realistic now

      both companies enjoy some unique advantages (one vs. the other) but you're kidding yourself if you don't think NEXT is still 5 years out

      that's my 2 cents worth

      but then

      sometimes you get people telling you stuff on these boards that like to impress others with their knowledge when they just don't reason right

      • 1 Reply to zxqwertas
      • This is a reasonable post - it calls out a valid question on when NEXT will launch, which is understandable, though that's not what I've been responding to in the initial post - it had to do with the opinion about continued growth (with no substantiation and a well known bias).

        Iridium has a firm fixed price contract with Thales and they say it's still on schedule. If I remember correctly, GSAT ran out of cash prior to the Coface loan and stopped work, and then restarted after they got money and expected Thales to stay on schedule. There were probably other problems, including Thales own mismanagement of the contract. Just because they mismanaged Globalstar's build, doesn't mean they will mismanage Iridium, which from what I understand is being pretty carefully managed, particularly after the problems with GSAT. A two year delay to 2017 - that's extremely unlikely. Six months? Maybe.

        Even if Thales screws up again and is late, I don't think it's as big a problem for IRDM as it has been for GSAT. Iridium's network is holding up well, they are adding more services and products to the existing network, so their growth isn't suddenly going to stop. It's a two year launch program, so maybe they can even catch up somewhat and not delay new air traffic services too.

        I have no problem with GSAT lovers reading this board - I read GSAT's board for the same reason. It's the posts on each others boards from people who are only oriented towards making stuff up about the other and create FUD, as if somehow that will help your own beloved stock. In reality, all it does is make the independents want to stay away from the sector because they think its a zero sum game.

        Keep posting though - its a free world. I'll respond accordingly.

    • Yeah, whatever. I care about as much for the facts about GSAT as you do about making accurate statements about IRDM. My comments from before stand - they are not as precise as yours, but generally correct that GSAT still needs cash, and is a long way from success. If you think otherwise, buy lots of their stock, and go back to pumping them on the GSAT board. Good luck to you.

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