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Theravance, Inc. Message Board

  • vanheus44 vanheus44 May 13, 2013 11:09 AM Flag

    What am I missing here-- valuation $50+?

    I'm just doing some simple math, taking into account ridiculously large 1 billion deal for royalties, this in my calculation would put THRX at $50+ conservatively, yet its still not trading there. All the risk is with ELAN at this point in my opinion. No such thing as a sure thing on wall st,, but I took a small spec position on THRX here, I still don't see this going anywhere but up, especially considering the large float, this could shoot much higher. Wish I had got in earlier, but if I'm right an this is trading at $50+ in a few days, still a good trade/investment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • This is pretty entertaining was THRX trade here. You have a large number of funds all short, and I can guarantee they all realize this is a $50 stock minimum on todays news, so now they are colluding trying to find a way to exit by mitigating their losses. They are trying to churn it best they can, but the inevitable direction is up, and none of them want to be left holding the short bag as the momentum pulls it higher. It should be fun to watch, as the games come to an end, and long money continues to pour in which is inevitable. I see THRX breaking $50 in the short-term, you can't deny it based on the valuation of the deal today.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • GSK can't have someone else eat its lunch-they will move

    • you will be very pleased if it even goes to 45 today...and should take profit then.

    • I think you have some big money trying to quietly exit there shorts here, but I expect this gets jacked in afternoon trading, possibly even a death squeeze is at hand. Huge percentage of short float here? Sometimes I think investors are crazy, imagine shorting THRX? What are people thinking? Anyway, the more I look into THRX the more confident I am about taking on a position, I agree Anoro looks like an excellent catalyst as well, another major market here. Without pumping-- I see this going toward $50 in the short-term-- I'm just doing 3rd grade math here.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • From what I've read a lot of people see more money in Anoro and it hasn't been approved yet. So there's some discount there.

    • It will get o $50 if GSK does something---other than that possibility the current DCF valuation on THRX gets one conservatively to the high 40s---which includes all of the royalty streams. When you say "ridiculously large 1 billion deal" is not that far off what many major investors were modeling in their evaluation. The stock is up nicely today on the ELN news & even caught people napping on the BREO approval Friday. Don't forget this stock has rallied 30% so relax & enjoy the ride.

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