Fri, Mar 6, 2015, 7:08 AM EST - U.S. Markets open in 2 hrs 22 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Message Board

  • aritch1974 aritch1974 Sep 23, 2013 11:13 AM Flag

    A Golden Trade? Macau estimates set to be revised upwards. MPEL by the most

    Leisure & Entertainment
    Analysts: David Bain

    Our Call

    Over the past 4 years, Macau operators (MPEL, LVS, WYNN, MGM, SJM and Galaxy) yielded average returns of +7.7%, +1.8%, +4.8% in the trading days during, 5 trading days after and 15 trading days following China’s October National Day/Golden Week holiday, respectively. This compared to the S&P average of +2.8%, +2.0% and +2.5% during the same periods.

    CY13’s Golden Week vs CY12: CY13 versus CY12 benefits from an 8% increase in room capacity, the relaxation of certain visa policies (migrant worker applications), increased capacity at the Gongbei Border; Guangzhou Zhuhai intercity mass rapid transit, no leadership transition issues, a more stable Mainland China macro economic backdrop, and pent up demand from Typhoon Usagi. Of note, the People’s Daily called typhoon Usagi the strongest in five years – we believe the typhoon dissuaded some visitors (there was both aviation and marine traffic suspension) during the Mid-Autumn festival last weekend.


    October's gross gaming revenue should surpass any previously recorded month in Macau by at least 8%, in our view.

    Another NT potential Macau stock driver: In 1H October, we anticipate 3Q13 and forward sell-side consensus estimates for Macau names to move higher. Based on July and August data channel checks and our September forecast, we believe MPEL (Buy, $30.86) is trending 12% to 14% ahead of 3Q13 EBITDA consensus estimates; LVS’ Macau division (Buy, $65.10) is trending 8% to 10% above EBITDA consensus; MGM (Buy, $19.92) China 5 – 7% above EBITDA consensus; and WYNN (Neutral, $155.22) Macau 1% to 3% above EBITDA consensus.

    4-year average S&P MPEL LVS MGM WYNN SJM Galaxy Group Ave.
    15 days after 2.5% 5.4% 5.6% 1.7% 3.0% 3.7% 9.3% 4.8%
    5 days after 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% 0.0% 2.8% 1.8%
    during 2.8% 10.5% 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 9.1% 8.9% 7.7%
    5 days before -2.1% -6.5% -4.6% -7.4% -6.2% -2.1% -5.6% -5.4%
    15 days befo

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • real news

    • here is what the most knowledgeable analyst in the business is talking about...

      MPEL continuing to outpace the competition -- 12-14% ahead of last year's Sep Q -- and a brilliant October coming right up!

      "October's gross gaming revenue should surpass any previously recorded month in Macau by at least 8%, in our view."

    • Awesome info. Thx!

      tf

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to tfberynell
      • i noticed the end of the table was cut off. glta!

      • Another NT potential Macau stock driver: In 1H October, we anticipate 3Q13 and forward sell-side consensus estimates for Macau names to move higher. Based on July and August data channel checks and our September forecast, we believe MPEL (Buy, $30.86) is trending 12% to 14% ahead of 3Q13 EBITDA consensus estimates; LVS’ Macau division (Buy, $65.10) is trending 8% to 10% above EBITDA consensus; MGM (Buy, $19.92) China 5 – 7% above EBITDA consensus; and WYNN (Neutral, $155.22) Macau 1% to 3% above EBITDA consensus.

        4-year average S&P MPEL LVS MGM WYNN SJM Galaxy Group Ave.
        15 days after 2.5% 5.4% 5.6% 1.7% 3.0% 3.7% 9.3% 4.8%
        5 days after 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% 0.0% 2.8% 1.8%
        during 2.8% 10.5% 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 9.1% 8.9% 7.7%
        5 days before -2.1% -6.5% -4.6% -7.4% -6.2% -2.1% -5.6% -5.4%
        15 days before -0.7% #$%$ -2.1% -5.0% -3.2% 3.6% -0.5% -2.1%

        Source: FactSet and Sterne Agee estimates

        Important Disclosures regarding Price Target Risks, Valuation Methodology, Regulation Analyst Certification, Investment Banking, Ratings Definitions, and
        potential conflicts of interest may be found by clicking on the report link below

 
MPEL
24.17-0.77(-3.09%)Mar 5 4:00 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Geron Corporation
NASDAQThu, Mar 5, 2015 4:00 PM EST
Vivint Solar, Inc.
NYSEThu, Mar 5, 2015 4:00 PM EST
AbbVie Inc.
NYSEThu, Mar 5, 2015 4:02 PM EST