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Rentrak Corporation Message Board

  • lazzlo_jamf lazzlo_jamf Jan 13, 2006 11:57 AM Flag

    video rental, is the worst over?


    10:57AM Blockbuster: JP Morgan comments on meeting with mgmt (BBI) 3.96 -0.01 : JP Morgan notes that they hosted a meeting with BBI and they walked away with the feeling that the co is clearly focused on cutting costs and improving free cash flow. The firm says the key takeaways from the meeting are: 1) the co is likely to close 10-20% of stores over the next 3-4 years; 2) the rental window is not likely to collapse, despite all the recent press, which the firm says is overdone; 3) the co expects to improve margins this year; 4) while they believe bringing back late fees would be a win-win for the co, customers, and investors, it is not yet committed to doing it; 5) box office and rental trends are improving, but they are not yet out of the woods because of the upcoming Olympics and World Cup; 6) subscription services have helped offset industry weakness; and 7) vendor relations have improved, seemingly back to normal. The firm believes the co is likely to outperform their estimates for the Q4 because rental industry data has been better than expected. The only downside risk would be in temporary volatility on industry press, which they believe is typically overdone and represents buying opportunities.

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