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Rentrak Corporation Message Board

  • Isn't it about time that someone is held
    accountable for the performance of this stock? I understand
    that it has run up from less than $3 but please
    remember that it was also $10 last year, without the
    benefit of any real help from ComAlliance, Paramount,
    Warner, new Line, the "internet Play", etc..

    I am
    really disappointed in the wording of the press release,
    the lack of follow through with any sustained buying,
    the overall management of the stock price (or lack
    thereof), and the incredibly poor public and investor
    relations.

    The really good news is that the company has the
    potential to be much better and stronger than the market
    thinks it is. The bad news is whether the current
    management can pull it off. So far, it does not look very
    promising. This too might not be ultimately bad either if a
    stronger group can come in and take over the company. This
    does not really represent a turnaround play. Instead,
    it is more of a maximization of what is already
    there.

    The annual meeting is on August 23 in Portland. I
    sincerely hope that all interested parties will attend and
    make their concerns known. If we do not get the
    response we deserve, maybe instead of dumping the stock,
    we should make some management changes that can
    deliver the true performance that this compnay is capable
    of.

    I am interested in any feedback regarding this
    posting. I also would like to know if there are any
    shareholders who are interested in discussing what we can do
    on a more proactive or aggressive basis. I will keep
    track of the ideas and postings and provide sumary
    updates as we get closer to the meeting.

    I repeat,
    I believe the company is poised to deliver stronger
    earnings and significant growth if they can deliver on
    their promise. However, I am not convinced the present
    managament team can do it, particularly the way they are
    structured today.

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    • If there is a buyout, don�t expect it for the
      whole company. Currently the sum of the parts is worth
      more than the whole but don�t expect someone to buy
      the whole and split it up. There is a buyer for the
      domestic PPT business right now. Can they come to terms?
      That is the big question. It won�t sell for less than
      $50 million.
      Rentrak Japan: What is 10% of a $200
      million/year business worth? We will find out in a few months
      when it goes public in Japan. That will give it
      valuation and some liquidity.
      ComAlliance: Should go
      public in a few months also. This is the home run. This
      will be the remainder if the other parts are
      sold.
      Hollywood lawsuit: How do you value this? Will Rentrak get
      the big enchilada or just the money Hollywood still
      owes them? It is either substantial or gigantic. This
      will remain with the company even if PPT is sold.

    • can anyone describe the rent poison pill, how it
      works, and what the financial implications are for a
      company that has to swallow the pill. Is there provision
      for setting it aside? Thanks for the thoughts on the
      buyout possibilities.

    • >"...could be a buy out
      coming..."<

      Please say what you mean here: A buy out by whom? Why
      hold back?

      >"...But then they would be in a
      position of supplying their
      competition..."<

      Blockbuster already owns an option on 1,000,000 RENT shares,
      so that's obviously not a problem for them. HLYW
      could buy a controlling 51% (5.3 million shares) of
      RENT in the marketplace for only $37 million at the
      $7/share price you mentioned. (absent any poison pill
      intervention). If HLYW controls rent, they also control what the
      independent stores get, and adds RENT's revenues to their
      financials. Since they don't have the dominant share of the
      market, there aren't even any anti-trust issues, though I
      doubt the independents would like it.

      >"Ron
      can stop them with the poison pill if he wishes. He
      would do that unless the offer is so very high that
      shareholders pressure him to sell."<

      Ah, but
      Rentmeister, that's the whole issue. If it's a choice between
      just giving RENT up to $50 million, or spending $50
      million to buy control of RENT, what do you think HLYW
      will do? $50 million divided by 5.3 million shares to
      control = tender offer of $10 per share. So, unless Ron
      can manage to get the price of RENT up to that level
      based on earnings, he'd face overwhelming pressure from
      stockholders to sell.

      Also, poison pill plans are
      designed to make a take over more expensive, but can't
      block a takeover unless enough new shares are issued to
      give insiders an absolute majority. What I am
      suggesting is that HLYW, faced with the untenable choice of
      a $50 million settlement that threatens their
      financial life, would be no ordinary hostile suitor, but
      one who's survival is at stake.

      Mind you, I
      don't particularly advocate an HLYW buyout, but as a
      stockholder, I'd certainly be considering ANY $10 buyout
      offer, count on it. Might take a whole New York minute
      to decide...

      Could be that the best defense
      RENT can mount is to take actions which "enhance
      shareholder value", to about $10 a share. Unfortunately,
      there's one other action that could be taken, and that
      would be to settle the HLYW lawsuit so cheaply that a
      take over never becomes an issue.

      Thanks for
      your time in responding to these points , I appreciate
      your thoughts.

    • HLYW could settle out of court with RENT for
      $25-$50 million. They could buy the company at $7/share
      for $70 million. But then they would be in a position
      of supplying their competition. Also, Ron can stop
      them with the poison pill if he wishes. He would do
      that unless the offer is so very high that
      shareholders pressure him to sell.
      There could be a buy
      out coming, but it won't be from Hollywood.

    • ccrrooww,

      I'm not trying to be antagonist
      here, but I am trying to provoke some thought,
      discussion, and research. Here's some questions for you and
      anyone else reading:

      What will HLYW do if it sees
      a court loss coming?

      Can HLYW really afford
      to settle without bankrupting themselves?

      Can
      RENT's poison pill plan really block a takeover? Does it
      have the resources to fight? Are the stockholders
      willing to fight, or will they tender their shares to
      HLYW and get out?

      Can Blockbuster block HLYW in
      a hostile takeover, even if they don't like it?
      Without the deep pockets of Viacom, will they really
      commit their resources to a fight or just bow out? How
      can they use the issue to cripple HLYW, their biggest
      rival?

    • RENT has a poison pill plan, also, I don't think Big Blue would go for Hollywood having access to all the transactional info that RENT currently processes.

    • Doubtful that RENT management would sell
      willingly, so let's assume for the sake of argument that
      HLYW sees a court loss coming, don't want to pay out
      $200+ million settlement, and gets a cold rebuff to the
      suggestion of a buyout.

      HLYW could then go to the
      market and try, with outright buying or a tender offer,
      to acquire the entire public float of 5.5 million
      shares, which would give them about 53% control of the
      company. They could pay as much as $30 per share and still
      spend only $165 million. Then presumably they would
      fire management and install their own
      board.

      Advantages to Hollywood:
      * They buy market share instead
      of just losing the money.
      * They could spin off
      ComAlliance and other internet properties to recover a big
      part of their investment.
      * They wind up in a
      strategically better position to contend with the meaner and
      more nimble Blockbuster we can expect after the
      spin-off (which prices tonight and presumably goes to
      market tomorrow).

      Does HLYW even HAVE the
      resources to acquire RENT? Quick look suggests it would be
      a reach for them. Their stock is WAY down, and a
      poor currency for acquistion. Cash? They appear to
      have less than $5 million, which they need for
      continuing operations. But we're talking survival here, a
      $200 payout would bankrupt them. They could borrow,
      then float a secondary offering to pay for it. Willing
      lenders? Who knows ...

      RENT presumably would fight
      back by loaning management the money to exercise all
      options. (As the market price would be driven up,
      presumably all options would be exercisable.) Would the
      resultant dilution be enough to deny Hollywood a voting
      majority? Additional "poison pill" strategy? What would
      Disney want? They have a big option. So does Blockbuster
      for that matter. Does Blockbuster have a right of
      first refusal? Not sure about any of these question,
      needs deeper analysis.

      I'm no expert in mergers
      & aqquisitions, these are merely my own
      speculations. But interesting ...

      One thing for sure:
      The market price would be driven up considerably and
      long-suffering stockholders would have a delightful exit.

    • it may make sense for hollywood to buy rentrak out rather than settle the lawsuit or let it go to trial? Any thoughts or insights appreciated.

    • Rentrak and Hollywood Set for Trial on January
      10, 2000
      PORTLAND, Ore., Aug. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- On
      August 5, 1999, a Multnomah County Circuit Court judge
      denied Hollywood Entertainment Corporation's (Nasdaq:
      HLYW - news) motion for partial summary judgment on
      certain of Rentrak's (Nasdaq: RENT - news) claims against
      Hollywood. The Court found that a jury will decide whether
      Hollywood is permitted under Rentrak's agreement with
      Hollywood to lease videocassettes directly from movie
      studios. The Court also denied Hollywood's motion to
      dismiss Rentrak's case based on alleged spoilation of
      evidence. Rentrak's conspiracy claim was dismissed with
      leave to refile. The case is scheduled for jury trial
      on January 10, 2000.

    • Check this link dated 8/2/99

      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/990802/or_rentrak_1.html

      Sorry, heard it on Yahoo first.

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43.05-0.55(-1.26%)12:43 PMEDT