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GrafTech International Ltd. Message Board

  • unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jul 30, 2013 11:04 AM Flag

    #$%$ 2nd quarter

    Fellars a poor quarter no doubt. Only 3 cents net per share and they had a sales slowdown and added $38 million in debt. So, iffen they raise prices like SGL, they orter have even less sales in the next quarter wouldn't you think? Sorta like the government raisin' yer taxes to get more revnue, then gettin' less? Soon I believe we'll see the $6's again. Jest my 2 cents, but I don't like these results, especially as compared to the quarter or years ago. Stopck has tanked from around $24 to $7.50 in pert near 2 what does that tell you bout how thar a doin'?

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    • I think you have a valid point. Sales have already booked in first quarter meaning revenue for the rest of the year is somewhat known. Kinda of like a purchase order where they have to buy after making that book sales. Most people don't understand this part so EPS always seems to be in line. It's the following year where new orders will be less given weak steel demand for the rest of the year thereby excess inventory build up at steel company leaving them once again to destocking like last year. You are absolutely right that SGL and GTI increase prices while china has decease price dramatically with high capacity output. Most will go to china for needle coke and electrode for sure. It is a repeat of last year and do agree it may drop some more. Getting less next year for sure. What do you think?

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to pyon11375
      • There is no needle coke in China, ergo there are no high quality electrodes in China. So China can make an impact in the low value electrodes, but if high quality large diameter EAF electrodes are ever in demand again, there are limited suppliers. This stock will only come back when economies are booming again and demand for high quality returns.
        How patient are you all?

    • The quarter was basically in line. There will be no price raises until 2014, as the customers and producers agree to prices during the first half of the year for the full year. As the call said, 95% of the sales book for 2013 is done.

      The graphite electrode market is horrific. Nothing new there. I expect prices to rebound a bit in 2014, but not to normalized levels. Keep your eye on GTI's engineered solutions segment. Big revenue growth YOY and management believes they can have this business at $500-$600 million in revenue at 15% margins in 3-5 years. That would be a nice chunk of earnings for GTI and help smooth out the steel cycles.

      Sentiment: Hold

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