HUM open interest of Oct. 10 puts is only 71 contracts. Also, the put open interest at other future strikes is not significant. On the other hand, the open interest of Oct. 10 calls is over 4,000 contracts.
Furthermore, keep in mind that a floor trader is ususally not short when calls are purchased. For every buyer, there is usually a seller(s). Someone had to sell those calls, i.e., the right to call away 200,000 shares on or before Oct. 20, 2000.
Isn't that the important question? If it was Jo Blo then yes, it is probably bearish in the near term. But if it was, say, Goldman Sachs well then that would be quite bullish. When UNH made a buyout bid a couple of years ago the call options were bought like crazy the week before the announcement -- of course the company, the price, and the date of the buyout were also posted on this board a few days before the options started to move. So lots of people knew what was about to happen. Nothing like that happening now.
Anyway, does anyone really want to sell their HUM at 10 regardless of what happens in the short term? I want at least 15 for my shares -- I can wait for any short term blips to pass.
By the way, HUM is very simple to trade -- you just buy when David Jones buys and sell when he sells. Ignore everything else.