Sorry, you will have to watch the movie and yes
that is its english
Yes, I have looked at(owned for short time srv) the
death care industry. I am an agnostic about them - too
much debt and projected growth rates of less than 10%.
On the other hand, the market seems to be saying
they are all going bankrupt like LWN (almost certainly
wrong). I am still watching I just don't think there is
Remember, I said that I come to this conclusion
as much from another HMO's point of view as HUM's.
Yes, HUM is doing everything it can to build a strond
business but if the right offer comes along I think it is
in their best interest to sell. And I think it will
be to someone who is a direct competitor in many of
the same markets -- someone who will benefit from the
economies of scale gained thereby.
As to my upbeat
name: it comes from a wonderful little Ukranian film
from a few years back. Our hero is depressed and takes
out a contract on himself but then changes his mind.
Unable to reverse the contract he hires another hit man
to kill the first. I won't give away anymore of the
plot but lets just say he ends up being a "friend of
the deceased". I just thought it was appropriate for
investing in those companies that the market has taken out
Keep in mind, that over the last few years, the
consolidation in healthcare has been split between complete
buyouts and sales of divisions. Don't count out the
possibility of divestiture of the HMO lives, with the rest in
tact as Humana. Either scenario will pump this stock,
but the former would be nicer, since we wouldn't have
to be concerned with a retracement.
I think HUM will be sold but not before a fair
market value is obtained, hint, I don't think we are
even half way there. They have over 10 billion in
revenue, and from all appearances, it don't matter who
will be president, money will be added to shore up
Medicare and this means more revenue for HUM. 20 has
always been my target, and no, not 20 cents like our
resident daytrader. This week will end positive, you heard
it here first. GOTTAKNOW
Who called you "Tokyo Rose?" It wasn't
Anyway, we're debating whether or not Humana will be sold
in the near term.
What I'm contending is
that a company doesn't spend millions of dollars in
technology improvements, with the express purpose of
becoming an e-commerce company, unless it wishes to remain
Of course, this is simply speculation on my part,
but if I'm selling my company, I'm investing as
little as possible and letting the acquiring company
spend the money.
Humana has hired several people
in IT, and not on a contractual or outsouce basis.
Tokyo Rose...That's a funny one. I've been called
lots of things, but never Tokyo Rose before.
I'm not sure about the analogy though. I'm a big
believer in the intrinsic value at HUM, and have been a
long term investor in HUM. I don't think of Tokyo Rose
that way. But, whatever...
I think I can
believe in the intrinsic value of a company, criticize
management, and guess about management's strategy for selling
the company, without being Tokyo Rose.
sure morale is better now than a few months ago. A few
months ago, HUM's survival was being questioned. I think
we all agree its worse to work for a company
threatened with going under than for a company being sold.
But, still, if you have been around a company being
sold, the first question in peoples' minds is "What
about my job?".
I'm not sure how "hedging bets
on the Internet" improves morale - except for those
whose jobs depend on it - but that's nice to hear.
Anyway, I understand a large part of HUM's technology
investment was outsourced.
HUM had to invest in
technology. It has had to keep its technology state of the
art. Look what happened to OXHP a couple of years ago
when their computer systems failed them. It almost
bust them. HUM's competitors have also invested
heavily in technology. How could HUM service 6 million
subscribers without state of the art technology?
you own a boat and want to sell it, you better keep
it well maintained, or no one will want to buy it.
Anyway, the amount of money HUM has invested in its
technology does not send a clue one way or the other in
terms of whether or not the company will be sold. Nor
will it have a material bearing on the sales
I'm not sure what we are debating. I think the
company will be sold, and that it won't be light years
away. I would not be surprised for a sale to come
sooner rather than later. I don't think Jones will
accept a fire sale price; but, I think the day when he
can get a decent price is not too far away. So, what
are we debating?
If you're correct, then why is Humana investing
millions in infrastructure improvements? Why would they
have hired several people in inforation technology? It
would seem to me that if Jones were interested in
selling, first and foremost, he would have dumped the
losing markets and THEN let the new company invest in
Morale at Humana is not low.
In fact, it's better now than it's been in months,
due largely to the fact that the company is hedging
it's bets on the Internet.
No, I don't work
there, but know several who do.
Propaganda by any other name
still stinks. I like to believe that most of the
posters on this board have the intelligence to recognize
your intent. Tokyo Rose caused a lot of
hand-wringing...but, we still won the war.