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Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC Message Board

  • mckaramanolis Feb 7, 2013 1:23 PM Flag

    why is it down so much???

    I thought they reported a good quarter!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • They reported a fantastic quarter - it will go up some going into divvy ex-date.

      Classic Goldman Sachs. They downgraded the stock on 1/8/13 to neutral reducing their price target by .50 to 11.00. Stock sold off and a regional investment bank (O'Keefe?) jumped on the bandwagon. Went down to low 9's.

      Then the accumulation started on mostly double volume. Stock went up to 10.70 pre-earnings. Why? Anyone that tracks numbers knew they had been getting decent inflows, but the key was the markets being up so much at the end of last year. They were not only going to get their incentive pay for 2012 - but get back incentives for the previous year or so. Sure enough incentive income (or whatever they call it) was 540+M compared to 43+M the year before. Hence the good quarter. This was kinda' reflected in the analysts estimates that were in at around .72.

      Look at the dividend distributions for this qtr in 2010 and 2011 - .58 and .71 (and after a flat year in 2011 last year's (2012) was .09.) One could have known based on the analyst estimates that a monster dividend was coming this month.

      So why sell-off? You make 16%+ in a month - sell it off and when the price is low enough (low 10's) buy it back (on huge volume) for the run up by the late buyers that want the dividend that get the news when they come home from work..

      Would love to catch a look at the books of trading desk at Goldman Sachs and see how much of this stock they bought in January. Not sure of SEC rules or trading desk filing dates - but since the downgrade was above the stock price, and they may have bought and dumped inside a month, and the $ amount was relatively peanuts - no regulator would catch this move or probably care.

      Yeah, maybe GS only made 8-10M (possibly more) on this trade - but how many times do they do this in a year? Besides 10M sure pays the light bills and quite a few bonuses for traders :).

    • I think that's a new investment style. It seems a kind of 'social investment' they do not invest in the business but in the behaviour of retail investors. They accumulate low and sell on the day of the report. Even if they get 3-4%, they can do it again and again. Maybe I'll try that too. Looks like a sure thing.

5.73+0.14(+2.50%)Nov 24 4:02 PMEST