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Pharmacyclics Inc. Message Board

  • popeyethesailor61 popeyethesailor61 Jun 10, 2012 11:10 PM Flag

    Thanks Sankeriver! GOOD POST !

    This drug will be approved in 2015.
    Second year WW sales will be $2 billion.
    Think about it- the patients are on this drug for years, not a typical ~3 month cycle of chemo.
    This doesn't even consider multiple myeloma or autoimmune.
    The rate of sales increase will be >30% plus/year.
    This drug will replace rituxan, velcade and revlimid. Total current sales = >$10B.
    Think about it.
    Apply a multiple of 5-6X revenue or 25X EBITA for a fast growing, world wide market, with little competition (once a day oral, relatively nontoxic drug, with amazing and durable response rates, with little to no drug resistance......).
    Its a small molecule (not a protein) so it is incredibly profitable.
    Divide by 2 because of J&J partnership. But consider rest-of-world market that Jansen can attack.
    Do your discounts.
    Remember the J&J deal provides for milestone payments for which PCYC will not have to raise any dilutive capital in the foreseeable future.
    The math is easily $6 billion market cap. Consider CELG market cap is $30 billion.
    That is well north of $100/share.
    Sit down, hang on and shut up.
    If you are smart you will double down.

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